米德兰原油加入Brent价格体系的结构性冲击分析  

Analysis of the structural impact of Midland joining the Brent pricing system

作　　者：汪啸 WANG Xiao(PetroChina International Co.Ltd.,Beijing,100033,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油国际事业公司,北京100033

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2023年第4期138-143,共6页Natural Gas and Oil

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金“规模与环境友好双导向下海洋油气开发激励机制设计与政策研究”(19YJCZH106)。

摘　　要：布伦特(Brent)是全球原油市场的重要定价基准之一。过去四十年,由于Brent价格体系中原油品种产量的下降,为保证流动性,Brent价格体系中不断纳入新的原油品种。美国米德兰(Midland)原油产地在北美地区,与全球另一大原油基准西德克萨斯中间基(West Texas Intermediate,WTI)原油密切相关。此次美国米德兰原油加入Brent价格体系不同于以往,可能对原油市场产生结构性冲击。在定性分析米德兰原油加入Brent价格体系影响的基础上,进一步通过定量的手段研究其影响。研究认为:1)未来Brent与WTI价格的联动性将增强;2)Brent与WTI价差将较之前宽幅波动的形态发生结构性缩小;3)美国对原油市场影响力提升的同时,Brent价格在全球原油市场的影响同样有望进一步提升。建议密切跟踪研判米德兰原油加入Brent价格体系的影响,提前做好应对措施;积极培育中国国内原油现货价格评估机构,提高中国国内原油现货交易市场透明度;高度重视中国国内原油期货影响力的提升,不断完善中国国内原油期货市场体制机制建设。Brent is one of the most important pricing benchmarks in the global crude oil market.Over the past forty years,due to the decline in production of deliverable crude oil grades in the Brent pricing system,new grades have been continuously included in the Brent pricing system to ensure liquidity.Midland crude oil which is a type of crude oil produced in North America,is closely related to another global benchmark for crude oil,WTI(West Texas Intermediate).The participation of Midland crude oil in Brent pricing system is similar to no other event in the past,which may have a structural impact on the crude oil market.Based on qualitative analysis of the impact of the addition of Midland crude oil to the Brent pricing system,this article studies its impact through quantitative methods.The study suggests that:1)the correlation between Brent and WTI prices will be stronger in the future;2)the price difference between Brent and WTI will be structurally narrower than before;3)while the influence of the United States on the oil market increases,the influence of Brent prices in the global oil market is also expected to further increase.It is recommended to closely monitor and assess the impact of the introduction of Midland into Brent pricing system,and take proactive measures in advance;actively cultivate domestic crude oil spot assessment institutions to improve the transparency of domestic crude oil spot trading;attach great importance to enhancing the influence of domestic crude oil futures and continuously improve the construction of institutional mechanism of the domestic crude oil futures market.

关 键 词：米德兰 Brent WTI 价差 结构性冲击 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1