国际原油市场2023年上半年回顾和下半年展望  

Review of the First Half of the 2023 Crude Oil Market and Outlook for the Second Half

作　　者：张庆辰 仇玄[1] 李漠雨 ZHANG Qingchen;QIU Xuan;LI Moyu(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2023年第4期12-18,共7页Petroleum and new energy

摘　　要：2023年上半年,宏观经济衰退,供需动态均衡,国际油价震荡下跌、经历了“两跌一涨”的变化过程。回顾上半年国际原油市场发展:一方面,美国联邦储备系统(简称美联储)持续加息引发银行业危机,市场情绪悲观施压油价;另一方面,“OPEC+”启动减产计划,基本面逐步趋紧托底油价运行。展望2023年下半年:欧美央行加息政策放缓,中国稳经济政策发力,宏观形势向好与季节性旺季来临驱动需求进一步回暖;“OPEC+”强力减产,非“OPEC+”产量增幅有限,全球供应量难以增长;需求回升、供给持稳将推动基本面转向供不应求,利好油价触底反弹;后期需警惕美联储超预期加息致使全球宏观经济衰退带来的油价下行风险。Global oil prices fluctuate and decrease in the first half of 2023 against a backdrop of a macroeconomic slump and dynamically balanced supply and demand,passing through a phase of“two drops and one rise”.Analyzing the trends in the world crude oil market throughout the first half of the year reveals that,on the one hand,the US Federal Reserve(Fed)continued rising interest rates,sparking a financial crisis,and that pressure on oil prices resulted from a gloomy market environment.On the other hand,and OPEC+created a production reduction plan,leading in a steady tightening of the fundamentals and low oil prices.Looking ahead to the second half of 2023:The rate at which American and European central banks raise interest rates is slowing.On the other hand,China’s economic stabilization strategy is effective,its macroeconomic environment is improving,and its seasonal peak season is drawing near,which is encouraging demand to increase.However,with OPEC+forcibly reducing production and non-OPEC+output growth being constrained,it will be challenging to boost the world supply in the second half of the year.But in China,the fundamentals will shift to a scarcity of supply due to the stabilizing supply and recovering demand,which is favorable for oil prices to bottom out.However,as we get into the later stages,we must be aware of the downside risks to oil prices brought on by the global macroeconomic recession brought on by the Fed’s surprise interest rate hike.

关 键 词：国际原油市场 油价 OPEC+ 俄罗斯 美联储 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]