磨刀门枯季咸潮上溯归因分析与响应规律研究  

Study on Attribution Analysis and Response of Saltwater Intrusion in Modaomen Waterway During Dry Seasons

作　　者：黄春华 林中源 邹华志 黄鹏飞 许伟 HUANG Chunhua;LIN Zhongyuan;ZOU Huazhi;HUANG Pengfei;XU Wei(Key Laboratory of Pearl River Estuary Regulation and Protection of Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China;Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Pearl River Water Resources Commission,Guangzhou 510611,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部珠江河口治理与保护重点实验室,广东广州510611 [2]珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510611

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第9期33-39,50,共8页Pearl River

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2023-01);国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3001000);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022005)。

摘　　要：在气候变化和人类活动影响下,磨刀门咸潮上溯显著加剧,极大地威胁了粤港澳大湾区的供水安全。基于2004-2016年磨刀门水道7个站点的日超标时间数据,与日最大潮差、径流量、平均海平面、跨岸风和沿岸风进行了经验正交函数分析(EOF)和一元及多元线性回归分析,探究磨刀门咸潮上溯与各影响因素的响应关系,量化各影响因素的作用大小。结果表明:对磨刀门咸潮上溯的贡献最大的是潮差,其次是径流,两者分别能解释超标时间日变化的30%和28%,风的作用略大于平均海平面,两者对咸潮上溯的贡献分别为12%和11%,其中跨岸风作用略大于沿岸风作用。磨刀门咸潮峰值出现在小潮潮差最小后的3.2 d,而高要站流量增大,1.8 d后才能抑制磨刀门河口咸情。该研究可为流域调度及咸潮预报提供理论支撑。Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the saltwater intrusion in the Modaomen Estuary Waterway has intensified significantly,which has greatly threatened the safety of the water supply in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Based on the daily exceedance time data of seven stations in the Modaomen Waterway,daily maximum tidal range,volume of runoff,mean sea level,cross-shore wind,and alongshore wind from 2004 to 2016,empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis and univariate and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to reveal the response relationship between the saltwater intrusion and the impact factors and quantify the contribution of each impact factor.The results show that the maximum contribution to the saltwater intrusion is the tidal range,followed by the volume of runoff,which can explain 30%and 28%of the diurnal variation of the exceedance time,respectively.The contribution of wind to the saltwater intrusion is slightly greater than that of the mean sea level,and the contribution of wind and mean sea level to the saltwater intrusion is 12%and 11%,respectively.The effect of cross-shore wind is slightly greater than that of alongshore wind.The peak of Modaomen saltwater intrusion appears in 3.2 days after the minimum tidal range,and the salinity of Modaomen Waterway is not suppressed until 1.8 days after the increase in the volume of runoff of Gaoyao station.This paper can provide theoretical support for watershed scheduling and saltwater intrusion forecast.

关 键 词：咸潮上溯 经验正交函数分析(EOF) 一元及多元线性回归 滞后时间 磨刀门水道 

分 类 号：P731.2[天文地球—海洋科学] TV148.3[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]