数字货币背景下的货币国际化--基本事实、模型设定及仿真模拟  

Analysis of Currency Internationalization in the Background of Digital Currency:Basic Facts,Model Settings and Simulations

作　　者：张敬思 李峰 ZHANG Jingsi;LI Feng(Green Development Strategy Institute of Western China,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;Business School,Nanfang College Guangzhou,Guangzhou 510970,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学中国西部绿色发展战略研究院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]广州南方学院商学院,广东广州510970

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2023年第5期67-79,共13页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划重点项目“贵州绿色金融助推经济高质量发展的机制与路径研究”(20GZZD61);2021年度贵州财经大学引进人才科研启动项目“时代变局下国际货币竞争格局研究”(XJ21119)。

摘　　要：立足国际货币竞争的数字化特征,建立货币数字化与货币国际化关系的函数,并据此构建国际货币竞争模型,仿真模拟央行数字货币同私人加密数字货币的竞合关系。研究发现:数字货币潜在的网络外部性是决定其国际化收益的主要因素。提升货币数字化水平的能力会构成数字货币国际化的先发优势,但无法长期维持甚至产生负作用。因此,数字货币的职能拓展不可一蹴而就,降低货币数字化风险、审慎利用货币数字化推动货币国际化将成为最优策略。此外,与强势国际货币挂钩的央行数字货币将在与私人加密数字货币的竞争中占据绝对优势,而弱势央行数字货币则面临来自私人加密数字货币的激烈竞争甚至可能被替代。Based on the digital characteristics of international currency competition,this paper creates a function between currency digitization and currency internationalization,then constructs a two-country model of international currency competition and simulates the competition and cooperation between CBDC and cryptocurrency.We find that:the potential level of network externalities of a digital currency is the main factor that determines its internationalization benefits.The ability to improve the level of currency digitization will constitute a first-mover advantage in digital currency internationalization,but it cannot be maintained in the long term or even negative.Therefore,the function expansion of digital currency cannot be achieved overnight,reducing the risk of currency digitization and using currency digitization to promote currency internationalization prudently will be a wise choice.In addition,central bank digital currencies pegged to strong international currencies will have an absolute advantage in the competition with private cryptocurrencies,while weak CBDC will face fierce competition from cryptocurrencies or even be replaced.

关 键 词：数字货币 国际货币竞争 货币国际化 模型设定 仿真模拟 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]