应用改良德尔菲法构建中国Ⅱ型脊髓灰质炎病毒输入传播风险评估工具  

Construction of a risk assessment tool for importation and transmission of type 2 poliovirus in China using a modified Delphi method

作　　者：康伟 温宁[1] 文艺 杨玉珍 张萍[2] 杨宏[1] Kang Wei;Wen Ning;Wen Yi;Yang Yuzhen;Zhang Ping;Yang Hong(National Immunization Program,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China;Taiyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Taiyuan 030012,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心免疫规划中心,北京100050 [2]太原市疾病预防控制中心,山西太原030012

出　　处：《中国疫苗和免疫》2023年第4期377-382,共6页Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization

摘　　要：目的 构建中国Ⅱ型脊髓灰质炎(脊灰)病毒输入传播风险评估工具。方法 应用改良德尔菲法对风险评估备选指标开展两轮专家问卷咨询和评分,计算综合得分的均数、变异系数、满分比及其筛选界值,最终确定中国Ⅱ型脊灰病毒输入传播风险评估工具。结果 两轮专家咨询的问卷回收率均为100%,皆为有效问卷,专家权威系数分别为0.930和0.925,专家评分的协调系数分别为0.205(χ^(2)=88.43,P<0.001)和0.216(χ^(2)=69.56,P<0.001)。最终确定的风险评估工具包括3个一级指标和22个二级指标;其中一级指标包括人群免疫情况、脊灰病毒监测情况、输入风险,权重分别为5、3、2。结论 本研究建立的风险评估工具可靠性高,可用于省级Ⅱ型脊灰病毒输入传播的风险评估。Objective To construct a risk assessment tool for importation and transmission of type 2 poliovirus in China.Methods Using a modified Delphi technique,we conducted and scored two rounds of questionnaire-based expert consultation to identify potential risk indicators.We calculated mean scores,coefficients of variation,full score ratios,and screening thresholds to finalize indicators for the risk assessment tool for importation and transmission of type 2 poliovirus.Results Response rates of the two rounds of expert consultation were 100%and all responses were valid.Authority coefficients of experts in the two rounds were 0.930 and 0.925 and concordance coefficients were 0.205(χ^(2)=88.43,P<0.001)and 0.216(χ^(2)=69.56,P<0.001).The final risk assessment tool included 3 primary and 22 secondary indicators.The primary indicators were population immunity,poliovirus surveillance,and importation risk,with weight values of 5,3,and 2.Conclusions The risk assessment tool had high reliability and can be used to assess risk for importation and transmission of type 2 poliovirus at the provincial level.

关 键 词：Ⅱ型脊髓灰质炎病毒 输入 传播 风险评估 德尔菲法 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]