基于区间估计的城市轨道交通客流波动性分析  

Fluctuation analysis of passenger flow in urban rail transit based on interval estimation

作　　者：刘钊 贾萌 陈丹 饶文明 Liu Zhao;Jia Meng;Chen Dan

机构地区：[1]南京工程学院汽车与轨道交通学院,江苏南京211167

出　　处：《现代城市轨道交通》2023年第9期89-94,共6页Modern Urban Transit

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52102379)。

摘　　要：准确掌握城市轨道交通客流变化规律有助于提升城市轨道交通精细化管理水平。针对城市轨道交通客流在时间上的分布特征,提出基于四分位法和基于ARIMA-GARCH模型的2种客流区间估计模型,利用估计得到的客流区间量化表示客流变化的波动性,并提出客流区间覆盖率、客流区间绝对宽度和客流区间相对宽度3个评价指标。依据来自于苏州地铁AFC系统的客流数据,分析对比所提出的2种客流区间估计模型,并定量分析工作日和周末的客流波动性特征。研究结果表明:从整体上看工作日的客流变化波动性明显小于周末客流波动性,从1天内客流变化情况来看,在早高峰之前及晚高峰之后的客流变化波动性较大,而早晚高峰之间时段的客流波动性相对较小。Understanding the changing characteristics of passenger flows in urban rail transit is crucial to improving the precise management and control of the urban rail transit system.According to the temporal distribution characteristics of urban rail transit passenger flows,this study proposes two models for passenger flow interval estimation based on the quartile method and the ARIMA-GARCH model.The fluctuation of passenger flows can be quantified by the estimated intervals between passenger flows.To this end,three indexes were used to evaluate the fluctuation of passenger flow,including the coverage rate,absolute width,and relative width of the estimated passenger flow intervals.Using real passenger flow data from the AFC system of Suzhou metro,the two proposed models for passenger flow interval estimation were tested,and the fluctuation of passenger flows from weekdays and weekends was compared.The research results show that the overall fluctuation of the passenger flows on weekdays is smaller than that on weekends.Within a day,the fluctuation of passenger flow is relatively high before the morning peak hours and after evening peak periods,whereas the fluctuations tend to be comparatively low during the noon hours.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 客流区间估计 波动性分析 四分位法 随机时间序列 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]