水资源管理“四预”总体框架设计与应用思路  

The overall framework design and application approach for“four pres”in water resources management

作　　者：游进军[1] 杜军凯[1] 林鹏飞[1] 仇亚琴[1] 贾玲[1] 郝春沣[1] You Jinjun;Du Junkai;Lin Pengfei;Qiu Yaqin;Jia Ling;Hao Chunfeng

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《中国水利》2023年第17期57-62,共6页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52079143、52209042);国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3204601、2018YFC0407705);浙江省水利科技重点项目(RB2212)。

摘　　要：围绕水资源管理“预报、预警、预演、预案”业务需求,以“动态评判、精准模拟、场景推演、智慧决策”为路径,提出“四预”的功能需求和内部逻辑关系,提出水资源管理“四预”系统整体构架设计。以水资源动态评价和动态调配功能为主线,分析从动态评价预报、动态分级调配、方案智慧生成的“四预”核心工具支撑研发需求,融合物联网、大数据、数字孪生、人工智能等新一代信息技术,建立融合区域水量分配、年度计划制定、月度方案生成、实时调度支撑、产品自动生成的业务功能体系,构建水资源数字化治理新模式,为水资源管理“四预”的技术研发、业务应用提供借鉴和参考。In response to the business demands of“forecast,early-warning,rehearsal,and plan”(“four pres”)for water resources,this study presents the functional requirements and internal logical relationships of the“four pres”based on the principles of“dynamic assessment,precise simulation,scenario deduction,and intelligent decisionmaking”.It outlines the overall architectural design of the water resources“four pres”system.With a focus on dynamic evaluation and allocation of water resources,the core tools required to support the development of“four pres”including dynamic evaluation forecasting,dynamic hierarchical allocation,and intelligent plan generation are analyzed.This involves the integration of next-generation information technologies such as the Internet of Things,Big Data,digital twins,and artificial intelligence.The study establishes a business functional system that combines regional water allocation,annual planning,monthly scheme generation,real-time scheduling support,and automatic product generation.It introduces a new model for the digital governance of water resources,providing valuable insights and references for the technological research and practical application of the“four pres”in water resources.

关 键 词：“四预” 水资源动态评价 水资源动态调配 系统构架 业务功能 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]