三重拉尼娜现象的分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Triple La Niña Phenomenon

作　　者：杜咏峥 梁舒同 李奕欣 王锦贤 Du Yongzheng;Liang Shutong;Li Yixin;Wang Jinxian(College of Engineering,Tibet University,Lhasa,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学工学院,西藏拉萨

出　　处：《科学技术创新》2023年第22期23-26,共4页Scientific and Technological Innovation

基　　金：大学生创新创业项目:白炭黑-再生沥青混合料水稳性能研究,项目编号:202310694012。

摘　　要：今年夏季,我国受三重拉尼娜现象影响导致北方多地出现大范围降水,南方多地出现高温酷暑天气,造成了不同程度的经济、人员和农业损失。本文通过建立时间序列;采用灰色预测模型、拓扑分析模型和层次分析法对三重拉尼娜现象的出现进行预测,并对三重拉尼娜现象造成的高温、干旱、洪涝等社会损失进行评估。分析得出三重拉尼娜现象下的高温干旱对西北干旱区影响最大,其次是东部季风区;最严重的是森林破坏价值损失和农产品价值损失,干旱和高温导致农产品收获数量减少;三重拉尼娜现象下的洪水对东部季风区影响最大,最严重的是人员伤亡和农产品价值损失。预测2022年出现拉尼娜现象的概率为70%,出现三重拉尼娜现象的概率超过50%;针对相关问题,提出解决建议和措施,为今后此领域相关研究提供参考。This summer,China was affected by the triple La Niña phenomenon resulting in widespread precipitation in many places in the north and high temperature and heat in many places in the south,which caused different degrees of economic,human and agricultural losses.In this paper,by establishing a time series;grey prediction model,topological analysis model and hierarchical analysis are used to predict the emergence of triple La Niña phenomenon and assess the social losses caused by triple La Niña phenomenon in terms of high temperature,drought,and flooding.The analysis concludes that high temperature and drought under triple La Niña will have the greatest impact on the Northwest Arid Zone,followed by the Eastern Monsoon Zone;the most serious loss of value from forest destruction and loss of value from agricultural products,with drought and high temperature leading to a reduction in the number of agricultural products harvested;and flooding under triple La Niña will have the greatest impact on the Eastern Monsoon Zone,with the most serious loss of life and injuries and loss of value from agricultural products.The probability of a La Niña phenomenon in 2022 is predicted to be 70 percent,and the probability of a triple La Niña phenomenon to be more than 50 percent;and recommendations and measures are proposed to address the related problems,which will serve as a reference for future related research in this area.

关 键 词：三重拉尼娜现象 灰色预测 时间序列 拓扑模型 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]