基于灰色Elman-NN模型的乡村旅游游客流量预测方法  

Prediction method of rural tourism tourist flow based on Grey Elman-NN model

作　　者：田玉玲 TIAN Yu-ling(School of Language and Culture Communication,Shangluo University,Shangluo 726000,Shaanxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]商洛学院人文学院,陕西商洛726000

出　　处：《信息技术》2023年第8期18-23,共6页Information Technology

基　　金：2020年陕西省教育厅专项项目(20JK0111)。

摘　　要：影响乡村旅游游客流量因素较多,导致乡村旅游游客流量预测误差较大,并且效率较低,设计一种基于灰色Elman-NN模型的乡村旅游游客流量预测方法。将所有数据按照一定的顺序排列,选取预测因子,对旅游数据关联度计算,采用灰色Elman-NN模型实现了乡村旅游游客流量预测。实验结果表明,所研究的基于灰色Elman-NN模型的乡村旅游游客流量预测方法在节假日前与节假日时的客流量预测上误差都较低,并且预测效率较高,满足乡村旅游游客流量预测方法的设计需求。There are many factors affecting the flow of rural tourism tourists,resulting in large prediction error and low efficiency of rural tourism tourists.A prediction method of rural tourism tourists flow based on Grey Elman-NN model is designed.All the data are arranged in a certain order,the prediction factors are selected,the correlation degree of tourism data is calculated,and the grey Elman-NN model is used to predict the flow of rural tourism tourists.The experiment results show that the prediction method of rural tourism tourist flow based on Grey Elman-NN model has low error in the prediction of tourists flow before and during holidays,and has high prediction efficiency,which meets the design requirements of rural tourism tourist flow prediction method.

关 键 词：灰色Elman-NN模型 游客 流量预测 关联度 预测 

分 类 号：TP391.7[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]