基于统计回归法的贸易自由化下经济增长效应评估  

Evaluation of Economic Growth Effect Under Trade Liberalization Based on Statistical Regression Method

作　　者：吴金桃 丁鑫龙[3] WU Jintao;DING Xinlong(Graduate Shool,Lyceum of the Philippines University,Cavite 4107,Philippines;Department of Economic and Social Management,Maanshan Teacher's College,Maanshan 243041,Anhui,China;School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Maanshan 243041,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]莱西姆大学研究生院,菲律宾卡威迪4107 [2]马鞍山师范高等专科学校,安徽马鞍山243041 [3]安徽工业大学电气学院,安徽马鞍山243041

出　　处：《山西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期16-23,共8页Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：安徽省教育厅2021年高校人文社科研究重点项目(SK2021A0894);安徽省教育厅2022年高校优秀青年人才支持计划重点项目(gxyqZD2022105).

摘　　要：对贸易自由化下经济增长效应进行评估,能够为我国经济发展提供参考.但传统的经济增长效应评估方法存在经济增长效应评估结果较差,不能获得准确经济变化情况问题.为此,设计一种基于统计回归法的贸易自由化下经济增长效应评估方法.首先,对贸易自由化下投入产出结构分析,构建空间统计模型和空间误差模型;然后,通过空间统计模型与空间误差模型获得各组织或区域间的联系,利用空间自回归模型分析城市GDP与存款之间的关系;最后,采用统计回归法与空间加权矩阵对经济增长效应进行评估,实现基于统计回归法的贸易自由化下经济增长效应评估.实例分析结果表明,文章方法能够准确评估出经济变化情况,满足了方法设计需求.对提高贸易自由化下经济增长效应评估效果具有显著作用.The evaluation of economic growth effect under trade liberalization can provide reference for Chi-na's economic development.However,the traditional evaluation method of economic growth effect has the prob-lem that the evaluation result of economic growth effect is poor and accurate economic changes cannot be ob-tained.Therefore,this paper designs an evaluation method of economic growth effect under trade liberalization based on statistical regression method.Firstly,it analyzes the input-output structure under trade liberalization,and constructs spatial statistical model and spatial error model;Then,the spatial statistical model and spatial er-ror model are used to obtain the relationship between organizations or regions,and the spatial autoregression mod-el is used to analyze the relationship between urban GDP and deposits;Finally,statistical regression method and spatial weighted matrix are used to evaluate the effect of economic growth,and the effect of economic growth un-der trade liberalization is evaluated based on statistical regression method.The results of case analysis show that the method in this paper can accurately evaluate the economic changes and meet the requirements of method de-sign.It plays a significant role in improving the evaluation effect of economic growth under trade liberalization.

关 键 词：统计回归法 贸易自由化 经济增长 效应评估 产出结构 空间统计 

分 类 号：F710[经济管理—产业经济]