中国流动人口的区域性回流及其区位选择的影响因素  

Regional return migration of China's floating population and thefactors influencing their locational selections

作　　者：钱宏胜 朱宇[2,3] 林李月[1,3] 柯文前[1,3] QIAN Hongsheng;ZHU Yu;LIN Liyue;KEWenqian(School of Geography,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;Asian Demographic Research Institute,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China;Institute of Geography,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州350007 [2]上海大学人口研究所暨亚洲人口研究中心,上海200444 [3]福建师范大学地理研究所,福州350007

出　　处：《地理研究》2023年第8期2089-2103,共15页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971180、41971168);澳大利亚研究理事会项目(DP230103060);福建省自然科学基金项目(2021J01145)。

摘　　要：利用全国性大规模抽样调查数据,采用回流路径识别方法,在识别出区域性回流群体的基础上,考察其区位选择特征及其影响因素。研究发现:区域性回流是人力资本积极选择的结果;户籍地所在的地级市是回流者首要选择地,回流至其他地区的人口规模随着远离家乡地级市呈现距离衰减规律;回流地以城镇地区为主,回流群体具有明显的地级中心城市偏好,其主要回流至城镇体系中的“中间城市”,尤其集中在100万~300万人的Ⅱ型大城市。回流区位选择受微观个体及其流动阅历、家庭生计以及回流地特征等多重因素的综合影响。家庭聚合和生计能力对城镇区位选择有显著的正向作用;省会城市和大城市区位选择是个体人力资本和流动阅历正向选择的结果;距离因素对区位层次的选择有显著的影响:回流者选择近距离回流地时偏好于地级中心城市,小城市也是其重要的区位选择;其选择远距离回流地时则更倾向于省会等高等级城市和大城市。上述结果不仅有益于进一步深化对流动人口回流空间过程的规律性认识,而且对于回流地城镇化发展和区域城镇体系的优化具有重要的政策含义。Based on the data from a nationwide large-scale sampling survey,this paper identifies the group of regional return migrants by detecting their return paths,and examines the characteristics of their locational choices and factors determining such choices.The results show that regional return migrations are positively related to the returnees'human capital,the prefecture-level cities where the returnees'hukou is registered are their first destination choice of return migration,and the number of returnees to other regions decreases as their distances from the returnees'hometowns increase,suggesting that the law of distance decay is at work.The results further demonstrate that the returnees mainly return to urban areas and have a clear tendency to return to prefecture-level central cities,with the“middle cities”in the urban system,especially Type II large cities with a population of 1-3 million as their most popular return destinations.The modelling results suggest that the locational choices of return migration are comprehensively affected by multiple factors,including individual characteristics and their migration experiences,family livelihood strategies and the characteristics of their return destinations.More specifically,family aggregation and livelihood capacity have significant positive effects on the choice of urban locations as return destinations,and the choice of provincial capital cities and other large cities is positively associated with returnees'individual human capital and migration experience.Distance is a significant factor affecting the locational choice of returnees,who prefer prefecture-level central cities and small cities when the distance of their return migration is short.However,when there is a long distance for return migration,returnees prefer high-level cities such as provincial capital cities,and other large cities as their destinations.These results are not only conducive to further deepening the understanding of the regularity of spatial processes of return migration,but also have

关 键 词：区域性回流 流动人口 区位选择 回流路径识别方法 影响因素 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]