长江流域历史典型洪水研究  

Research on historical typical floods in Changjiang River Basin

作　　者：张涛 胡挺 胡琼方 许银山 赵国龙 王飞龙 ZHANG Tao;HU Ting;HU Qiongfang;XU Yinshan;ZHAO Guolong;WANG Feilong(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Yichang 443100,China;The Three Gorges Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Bureau of Hydrology ofChangjiang Water Resources Commission,Yichang 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [2]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北宜昌443100 [3]长江水利委员会水文局长江三峡水文水资源勘测局,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第9期17-23,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0799245);江西省水利厅科技项目(课题)(202224ZDKT20)。

摘　　要：流域历史洪水资料蕴含着大量洪水特征信息,能够为设计洪水、洪水预报、实时调度等工作提供参考。通过收集整理长江流域历史典型洪水基础资料,研究了历史典型洪水重构方法,以长江流域现状工程体系为背景,对三峡水库建成前后长江流域12个历史典型年(1870,1931,1954,1966,1981,1982,1998,2010,2012,2016,2017,2020年)洪水进行全方位重构,形成了现状工程条件下的长江流域历史典型洪水库。依据《全国流域性洪水划分规定(试行)》对长江流域历史典型洪水类型进行辨识,分析归纳了历史典型洪水组成特征:1870,1931,1954,1998,2020年为典型的流域性洪水年,其主要特征是上游代表站洪峰流量大,中下游代表站最大30 d洪量重现期均在10 a以上,高水位历时长;其余典型历史洪水年为区域性洪水年,其共同特征是中下游代表站最大30 d洪量重现期不超10 a,水位超警历时短,一般不超40 d。通过上述研究,深化了对长江流域历史典型洪水特征规律的认识,为进一步开展洪水模拟调度推演、水工程联合调度研究奠定了基础。The historical flood data of the basin contains a large amount of information on flood characteristics,which can provide a reference for flood design,flood forecasting,and real-time scheduling.This paper collected and sorted out basic data of the Changjiang River Basin,studied the reconstruction method of historical typical floods,and comprehensively reconstructed the historical flood processes of the Changjiang River Basin in 12 typical years(1870,1931,1954,1966,1981,1982,1998,2010,2012,2016,2017,2020)before and after the formation of the Three Gorges Reservoir.The historical typical flood database of the Changjiang River Basin was formed based on the current water projects system.According to the“National Regulations on the Classification of Basin-Wide Flood(Trial)”,the types of historical typical floods were identified,and the composition characteristics were analyzed and summarized.The floods in 1870,1931,1954,1998,and 2020 were identified as typical basin floods,with the main characteristics of high peak flows at the upstream representative stations,the return period of maximum 30-day flood of more than 10 years at the mid-lower representative stations,and the long-lasting high water level.The rest of the typical historical floods were identified as regional floods,with a common characteristic of the maximum 30-day flood return period at representative stations in the mid-lower reaches not exceeding 10a,and the water level exceedingthe warning stage for a short period,generally below 40 days.The above research has deepened the understanding of the characteristics of historical typical floods in the Changjiang River Basin and laid the foundation for further research on flood simulation and joint operation of water conservancy projects.

关 键 词：历史典型洪水 洪水还原 洪水还现 洪水分类 洪水组成 长江流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]