全国及各省份老年健康预期寿命变化及差异比较  

Comparison of Changes and Differences in Health Expectancies of the Elderly in the Nation and Provinces

作　　者：乔晓春[1] QIAO Xiaochun(Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与经济》2023年第5期1-20,共20页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“健康预期寿命与人口群体健康水平测量”(17ZDA124)。

摘　　要：平均预期寿命只反映死亡水平,并不反映现有人口的健康水平,因此用平均预期寿命反映人口群体健康水平并不合适。能够同时反映现有人口死亡水平和现存人口健康水平的综合指标被称为健康预期寿命。然而,中国和各省份并没有一个统一计算的、可比的能够代表和反映全国及各省份老年人综合健康水平的健康预期寿命,更没有可以反映全国及各省份老年人健康状况变化的测量结果,从而影响到全国各省份之间老年人健康差异、健康不平等和健康变化的比较。本文利用2010年和2020年两次全国人口普查获得的全国和各省份老年人自评健康数据以及国家统计局提供的两次普查获得的全国和各省份老年生命表,使用Sullivan方法计算了2010年和2020年全国和各省份60岁及以上老年人健康生命表,得出了全国和各省份60岁确切年龄健康预期寿命、自理预期寿命、健康预期寿命占预期寿命比例和生命质量指数。结果显示:全国和各省份男性和女性老年预期寿命和健康预期寿命都在增加,绝大多数省份老年健康期在拓展或不健康期在压缩,但吉林和内蒙古等个别省份存在不健康期拓展的情况。既活得长又活得健康的老年人(即老年健康生命指数较高)主要生活在福建、广东、江苏和贵州,另外还有上海和北京的男性以及江西和重庆的女性;活得既不够长也不够健康的老年人主要生活在西部地区,以及内蒙古、吉林和山西。Life expectancy portraies the general level of mortality,not the level of population health,so that it is not appropriate to use life expectancy to measure population health.The comprehensive indicator to mirror the level of both mortality and health is the healthy life expectancy or health expectancy.However,up to now,there has been no consistently calculated,comparable,nationally and provincially representative measures in health expectancy for the elderly in China,as well as no measures in reflecting their changes in health expectancy,which hindered the comparison of the diversity,inequality and changes in health and mortality among provinces.Based on self-rated health datas of the elderly obtained by 2010 and 2020 National Population Census as well as national and provincial life tables of the elderly provided by the National Bureau of Statistics,the elderly health life tables for the nation and provinces are calculated by the Sullivan method,from which health expectancies at exact age 60,self-care expectancies,proportions of health expectancy among life expectancy and index of quality of life are calculated.The results show that elderly’s life expectancies and health expectancies all increased from 2010 to 2020 for both males and females for the nation and all 34 provinces in Chinese mainland,and healthy expansion or unhealthy compression happened in most provinces but unhealthy expansion occured in a few provinces such as Jilin and Inner Mogolia,etc.;The elderly who are living longer and healthier are mainly living in Fujian,Guangdong,Jiangsu and Guizhou,as well as Shanghai and Beijing for males,Jiangxi and Chongqing for females,and the eldrly who are living less long and less healthy are living in the western regions and in Inner Mogolia,Jilin and Shanxi.

关 键 词：生命表 预期寿命 健康预期寿命 生命质量指数 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]