基于生命周期和交叠世代分析的养老风险管理文献综述及其启示  

Literature Review and Enlightenment of Pension Risk Management Based on Lifecycle and Overlapping Generation Analyses

作　　者：姚海祥 邹志文 张伟轩 YAO Haixiang;ZOU Zhiwen;ZHANG Weixuan(School of Finance,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2023年第8期214-219,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AZD071)。

摘　　要：随着长寿风险的加剧以及人口死亡率的降低,养老风险管理的研究逐渐受到政府和学术界的广泛关注。本文系统梳理了养老风险相关驱动因素(死亡率和长寿风险)的研究,并介绍了生命周期框架与交叠世代模型(OLG)的建模过程,还对生命周期框架和OLG模型的应用研究进行了文献综述。从文献回顾来看,当前研究存在一些不足,未来的研究应基于我国人口生存特征去研究死亡率;同时,需要从生命周期框架和OLG模型研究研究应对养老风险的稳健的投资-消费决策,并在考虑对上一代老人赡养的情形下研究寿险决策。此外,随着养老风险逐步加剧,建议政府采取改进我国的多支柱养老保险体系、进一步放开生育、延迟退休及发展养老服务业等方式应对养老风险,保证我国养老金体系的可持续发展。Pension risk refers to the risk caused by the lack of life security,the contingency and uncertainty of survival risk for the elderly population.The increasing risk of longevity and the reduction of mortality are important factors affecting the risk of pension in China.Although China’s pension insurance system has the characteristics of multi pillar and diversification,the pension problem of Chinese residents is still very prominent,and the pension situation is still very serious.Relevant data show that 176 million people aged 65 and above in 2019,account for 12.6%of the total population,which undoubtedly shows that China’s population aging is very serious,which will bring huge risks to residents’pension.According to the prediction of China pension actuarial report 2019—2050,by 2035,China’s urban basic endowment insurance will be completely exhausted,and the pension situation is very serious.The reason is that the pension risk makes the pension security system unsustainable due to population aging.The reason for the aging of the population lies in the reduction of mortality and the increase of longevity risk caused by the improvement of medical and health conditions.From the perspective of individuals and families,investment,consumption decisions,life expectancy,health status and family composition structure have a direct impact on pension risk.From the social and national level,factors such as population age structure,economic development,pension security system and fiscal revenue and expenditure indirectly affect the pension risk.With the aggravation of population aging,the research of pension risk management has gradually penetrated into the fields of consumption and investment,derived the analysis framework of pension issues.The academia has conducted in-depth discussions on consumption,investment,policy parameters and pension insurance system.Pension risk management can be studied from many aspects,and life cycle analysis is an important research perspective.According to the life cycle theory,analyz

关 键 词：养老风险 死亡率 长寿风险 生命周期框架 OLG模型 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]