房地产泡沫抑制了我国技术创新吗?——来自省际面板数据的经验证据  

Does Bubble in the Real Estate Industry Restrain Technological Innovation?——Empirical Evidence from Inter-provincial Panel Data

作　　者：马昭君 葛新权[2] MA Zhao-jun;GE Xin-quan(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Information Science&Technology University,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京市102488 [2]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京市100192

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2023年第9期11-22,共12页China Business and Market

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金规划重点项目“基于数据分析的北京市企业宏观质量精准画像与预警”(20GLA002)。

摘　　要：在经济转型背景下,减轻房地产市场非理性繁荣对技术创新的掣肘至关重要。基于2006—2020年我国30个省、市、自治区(不含西藏和港澳台地区)的面板数据,采用市场供求法测度各地区的房地产泡沫,探究房地产泡沫对技术创新影响的传导机制,实证房地产泡沫对技术创新的影响。研究发现,房地产泡沫对技术创新存在资源错配、资金挤占和成本增加效应,显著抑制了某一地区的技术创新。空间相关性检验和空间溢出效应分析显示,由于区域之间的人口流动和经济协动,地区房地产泡沫存在一定的空间相关性,会通过溢出效应影响周边地区的人力、资本和技术等,进而对地理邻近和经济邻近地区的技术创新产生阻碍作用。异质性分析表明,房地产泡沫对技术创新产生的溢出效应在经济协动性更强的东部地区和中部地区表现更显著。鉴于此,为有效推动房地产行业的健康发展和创新驱动发展,需要抑制房地产过度金融化,适时优化房地产调控政策体系;重视技术创新的成本定价,平衡不同行业的投资回报率;缓解企业融资约束,鼓励企业进行创新。In the context of economic transformation,it is very important to reduce constraints brought by the irrational exuberance of the real estate market on technological innovation.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2006 to 2020,the authors use the market supply and demand method to measure bubble in real estate industry in each region,systematically explore the transmission mechanism of the impact of bubble in the real estate industry on technological innovation,and empirically examine the impact of bubble in the real estate industry on technological innovation.It is found that bubble in the real estate industry has the effects of resource misallocation,capital crowding and cost increase on technological innovation,which significantly inhibits technological innovation in a certain region.The spatial correlation test and spatial spillover effect analysis show that,due to the population flow and economic interaction among regions,bubble in the regional real estate industry has a certain spatial correlation,which will affect the human,capital and technology in the surrounding areas through the spillover effect,and thus hinders the technological innovation in the geographical and economic neighboring areas.Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the spillover effect of bubble in real estate industry on technological innovation is more significant in the eastern and central regions with stronger economic interdependence.In view of this,in order to effectively promote the healthy development and innovationdriven development of the real estate industry,it is necessary to restrain the excessive financialization of real estate and timely optimize the real estate regulation policy system,pay attention to the cost pricing of technological innovation and balance the return on investment of different industries,and ease the financing constraints of enterprises and encourage enterprises to carry out innovation.

关 键 词：房地产泡沫 技术创新 空间溢出 区域异质性 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]