技术进步、产业结构升级与城市经济韧性  

Technological Progress,Industrial Structural Upgrading,and Urban Economic Resilience

作　　者：郜攀峰 GAO PAN-Feng(School of Politics and Public Administration,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,Henan,China;School of Marxism,Physical Education College of Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450044,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学政治与公共管理学院,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州大学体育学院马克思主义学院,河南郑州450044

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2023年第9期51-62,共12页China Business and Market

基　　金：2022年度河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“中华优秀传统文化融入河南高校思想政治教育研究”(2022BZX013)。

摘　　要：新发展格局下,增强城市经济韧性可以应对外部环境变化带来的挑战,摆脱传统粗放发展模式羁绊,有效推动城市经济平稳增长和高质量发展。基于2010—2021年我国30个省份(未包含西藏、香港地区、澳门地区、台湾地区)共计285个地级及以上城市面板数据,通过固定效应模型和中介效应模型,实证检验技术进步对城市经济韧性的影响及产业结构升级在二者间的中介效应。研究显示,技术进步显著正向影响城市经济韧性,且在通过内生性检验、替换核心解释变量与替换回归模型等方法进行稳健性检验后,该结论依旧成立;通过门槛效应检验可知,技术进步在高于单一门槛值0.351时,会对城市经济韧性发挥正向促进作用;从空间分布看,技术进步对城市经济韧性的影响呈现“东部>中部>东北>西部”的地区异质性分布格局;技术进步通过产业结构升级增强城市经济韧性,推动区域经济高质量发展,产业结构升级在技术进步对城市经济韧性的影响中发挥部分中介作用。因此,应健全城市多功能协同发展机制,增强城市经济韧性;合理配置资源要素,激发技术进步积极效能;制定全面发展战略,切实推动产业结构升级。Under the new development pattern,enhancing the resilience of urban economy can address the challenges brought by external environmental changes,break from the constraints of traditional extensive development models,and effectively promote stable growth and high-quality development of urban economy.Based on the panel data of 285 cities at prefecture level and above in China's 30 provinces(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong region,Macao region,and Taiwan region)from 2010 to 2021,the author empirically tests the impact of technological progress on urban economic resilience and the mesomeric effect of industrial structural upgrading between them through the fixed effect model and the mesomeric effect model.Research shows that technological progress significantly positively affects urban economic resilience,and this conclusion remains robust after endogeneity testing,replacing core explanatory variables,and replacing regression model methods.The threshold effect found that,when the single threshold value of technological progress is higher than 0.351,it can have a positive promoting effect on urban economic resilience;from the perspective of space distribution,the impact of technological progress on urban economic resilience presents a heterogeneous distribution pattern of"East>Central>Northeast>West";and technological progress enhances urban economic resilience by driving industrial structure upgrading and promoting high-quality regional economic development,and industrial structure upgrading plays a partial intermediary role in it.So,we should perfect the mechanism for urban multi-functional collaborative development to enhance urban economic resilience,reasonably allocate resource elements to stimulate the positive effectiveness of technological progress,and develop a comprehensive development strategy to effectively promote the upgrading of industrial structure.

关 键 词：技术进步 产业结构升级 城市经济韧性 产业结构合理化 产业结构高级化 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]