老年股骨颈骨折患者术后死亡的危险因素及预测列线图的构建  

Risk factors of postoperative mortality of femoral neck fractures in elderly patients and construction of a nomogram predictive model

作　　者：李志鹏 环大维 袁兆丰 邱越 张超 夏天卫 沈计荣 Li Zhipeng;Huan Dawei;Yuan Zhaofeng;Qiu Yue;Zhang Chao;Xia Tianwei;Shen Jirong(Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine(Jiangsu Province Hospital of Chinese Medicine),Nanjing 210004,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]南京中医药大学附属医院(江苏省中医院),江苏省南京市210004

出　　处：《中国组织工程研究》2024年第21期3361-3366,共6页Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research

摘　　要：背景:针对不断增多的老年股骨颈骨折患者,提高关节置换后死亡风险的筛查能力并及时实施个性化干预方案,是改善患者术后状态、延长生存预期的关键。目的:探讨老年股骨颈骨折患者术后死亡的危险因素,并构建预测其死亡风险的列线图模型。方法:以2016年1月至2021年1月因股骨颈骨折于同一治疗组行关节置换的155例老年患者(≥65岁)为研究对象,将符合纳入标准的147例患者进行结果分析。收集可能影响患者术后死亡的临床资料,先后采用单因素与多因素Cox回归分析筛选与术后死亡相关的独立危险因素,并使用Rstudio软件构建列线图模型,并对模型进行验证。结果与结论:①年龄、虚弱度(年龄校正Charlson合并症评分)、术前活动状态、骨质疏松、术后血清白蛋白水平是老年股骨颈骨折患者术后死亡的5个独立危险因素(P<0.05);②根据多因素分析结果构建列线图模型,一致性指数为0.819(95%CI:0.771-0.868),受试者工作特征曲线分析显示1,3年死亡预测的曲线下面积分别为0.8543,0.7263,说明列线图具有良好区别度和预测能力;校准曲线与决策曲线分析也显示出模型良好的鉴别力和临床实用价值;③构建的列线图模型具有良好的诊断效能及准确度,可有效评估患者术后死亡风险。BACKGROUND:With a gradually aging population,improving the ability to screen for the risk of death after arthroplasty and implementing timely personalized intervention programs for the increasing number of elderly patients with femoral neck fractures is key to improving the postoperative status of patients and prolonging survival expectations.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the risk factors for postoperative mortality in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures and to construct a nomogram predictive model to predict their mortality risk.METHODS:The study was conducted on 155 elderly patients(≥65 years old)who underwent arthroplasty for femoral neck fracture from January 2016 to January 2021,and 147 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed to collect clinical data that may affect the patients’postoperative mortality.Single-factor and multi-factor Cox regression analyses were successively used to screen independent risk factors associated with postoperative mortality.The column line graph model was constructed and validated using Rstudio software.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Age,frailty(age-adjusted Charlson comorbidities score),preoperative activity status,osteoporosis,and postoperative serum albumin level were five independent risk factors for postoperative mortality in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures(P<0.05).(2)The nomogram predictive model was constructed based on the results of multifactorial analysis,with a consistency index of 0.819(95%CI:0.771-0.868).Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under curve for 1-year and 3-year survival prediction was 0.8543 and 0.7263,respectively,indicating that the nomogram predictive model has good discriminatory and predictive power;calibration curve and decision curve analysis also showed good model discriminative power and clinical utility value.(3)The constructed nomogram predictive model has good diagnostic efficacy and accuracy,and can effectively assess the risk of postoperative death of patients.

关 键 词：老年 股骨颈骨折 死亡率 危险因素 回归分析 列线图预测模型 

分 类 号：R459.9[医药卫生—治疗学] R318[医药卫生—临床医学] R678.4