数字基础设施对地方财政可持续的影响机制及效果研究  

Research on the Influence Mechanism and Effect of Digital Infrastructure on Local Fiscal Sustainability

作　　者：宋美喆 胡丕吉[2] SONG Meizhe;HU Piji(Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha 410205;Changsha Central Sub-branch of People's Bank of China,Changsha 410005)

机构地区：[1]湖南财政经济学院财政金融学院,湖南长沙410205 [2]中国人民银行长沙中心支行金融研究处,湖南长沙410005

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2023年第5期20-35,共16页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“地方财政策略互动对城市群要素市场一体化的影响及优化对策研究”(21CJY009)。

摘　　要：以智慧城市试点政策的实施作为准自然实验,采用渐进双重差分模型研究数字基础设施对地方财政可持续的现实影响。研究结果显示,数字基础设施对地方财政可持续的影响以正向为主导,具有逐年递增的特征,且呈现异质性,在高创新水平、高人口规模、高人力资本的城市表现更为突出。机制检验结果表明,数字基础设施通过促进产业结构升级、刺激公众消费需求、提高财政支出绩效等渠道发挥积极作用,但也会弱化政府征税能力、造成税收流失,对地方财政可持续发展产生负面影响。同时,投资冲动的影响效应不显著,使得数字基础设施通过强化投资冲动作用于地方财政可持续的机制被中断。进一步的分析结果显示,数字基础设施建设具有空间溢出性,能够带动地理距离相近和经济发展水平类似的城市提高财政可持续性。据此,从有序引导社会资本投入、搭建财税领域的智能网络平台、推动产业和消费升级、发挥先行城市的辐射带动作用等方面提出政策建议。Fiscal policy is the foundation and important pillar of national governance,playing the role of stabilizer and regulator in ensuring high-quality and sustainable economic and social development,which is premised on fiscal sustainability itself.Digital infrastructure centered on artificial intelligence,cloud computing and block chain lays a solid foundation for the digital economy by impacting activities of enterprise operation,residents'consumption and government decision-making on real economy operation,and reflecting on fiscal revenue and expenditure relations,gradually changing the fiscal basis of local governments from the bottom up,directly affecting their sustainability.Firstly,the mechanism of the multi-dimensional impact of digital infrastructure on local fiscal sustainability is systematically elaborated from the two major channels of fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure.Specifically,the impact path on the fiscal revenue is examined from the perspective of industrial structure,consumption demand,and taxation capability,while the impact path on the fiscal expenditure is examined from the perspective of fiscal expenditure performance and investment impulses.Secondly,considering the potential endogenous bias,adopting the quasi-natural experiment of implementing the smart city pilot policy,the actual impact of digital infrastructure on local fiscal sustainability is empirically tested by using the staggered difference-in-differences model.The research finds that the impact of digital infrastructure on local fiscal sustainability is dominated by positive effects.After considering the effects of endogenous modelling,heterogeneity treatment,replacing variables,deleting some samples and excluding other policy interventions,the conclusion still holds.This impact has the increasing characteristic year by year and shows heterogeneity,being more prominent in cities with higher innovation level,larger population scale and higher human capital.The mechanism test shows that digital infrastructure plays a positive role

关 键 词：数字基础设施 地方财政可持续 智慧城市试点 产业结构 消费需求 财政支出绩效 征税能力 投资冲动 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学] F492.3