渌水流域水沙演变规律及其对土地利用变化的响应研究  

Study on the evolution pattern of water and sediment in the Lushui Basin and their response to land use changes

作　　者：隆院男[1,2] 郑谟若 闫世雄 刘易庄[1,2] LONG Yuannan;ZHENG Moruo;YAN Shixiong;LIU Yizhuang(School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco-Environmental Control and Restoration of Hunan Province,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [2]长沙理工大学洞庭湖水环境治理与生态修复湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《长沙理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期89-104,共16页Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079010);湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ2019081-41);湖南省重点研发计划项目(2020SK2130);长沙市自然科学基金资助项目(kq2014103)。

摘　　要：【目的】探究渌水流域土地利用变化对水沙变化的影响。【方法】基于遥感影像数据及实测水沙数据,分析渌水流域水沙变化趋势及其对土地利用变化的响应,进一步构建CA-Markov城市扩张模型及水文模拟模型(hydrologic simulation program-Fortran,HSPF),量化土地利用变化和气候变化对水沙的影响;基于模型开展渌水流域未来土地利用情景预测及未来水沙过程模拟。【结果】1980年以来渌水流域内建设用地面积持续增长,渌水流域实测径流量呈增加趋势,输沙量呈减少趋势,两者的突变点分别在1988年及1998年;气候变化和人类活动对径流增加的贡献率分别为49.53%、50.47%,对输沙减少的贡献率分别为3.45%和96.55%;实施耕地保护政策的2030年土地利用情景在保障耕地面积的同时,并未明显加剧水土流失问题,还能兼顾社会经济发展和城市化建设。【结论】1988年之后渌水流域径流量增加是土地利用变化和气候变化共同作用的结果;而1998年之后流域输沙量显著减少的主要原因为土地利用变化。[Purposes]This study aims at exploring the effects of land use change on water and sediment changes in the Lushui Basin.[Methods]Based on remote sensing image data and measured water and sediment data,this study analyzes the trend of water and sediment changes and their response to land use changes in the Lushui Basin.Further,the CA-Markov urban expansion model and HSPF(hydrologic simulation program-Fortran)hydrological model were constructed to quantify the impacts of land use changes and climate change on runoff and sand transport.Based on models,future land use scenarios in the Lushui Basin were predicted and future water and sand process were simulated.[Findings]The area of built-up land in the Lushui Basin has continued to grow since 1980.The measured runoff in the Lushui Basin showed an increasing trend and the sand transport showed a decreasing trend,with the abrupt change points in 1988 and 1998 respectively.The contribution of climate change and human activities to the increase of runoff is 49.53%,50.47%,and the contribution to the decrease of sand transport is 3.45%and 96.55%,respectively.The land use scenario till the 2030 under the implementation of the arable land protection policy safeguards the area of arable land without significantly exacerbating the problem of soil erosion,and takes into account socio-economic development and urbanization.[Conclusions]The increase in runoff in the Lushui Basin after 1988 was the result of a combination of land-use change and climate change,while the significant decrease of sand transport in the basin after 1998 was largely attributed to land-use change.

关 键 词：水沙变化 渌水流域 HSPF模型 土地利用变化 CA-Markov模型 贡献率 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]