广东省耕地非农化时空演变分析与扩散路径预测  

Spatial-temporal Evolution Analysis and Diffusion Path Prediction of Cultivated Land Conversion in Guangdong Province

作　　者：孙礼勇 甄珍[2] 陈士银[2] 黄枫城 蔺中[2] SUN Liyong;ZHEN Zhen;CHEN Shiyin;HUANG Fengcheng;LIN Zhong(Guangdong Huanyu Planning Consulting Company Limited,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510000,China;Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524088,China)

机构地区：[1]广东寰宇规划咨询有限公司,广东广州510000 [2]广东海洋大学,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《天津农业科学》2023年第9期68-78,共11页Tianjin Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金(2022A1515010867,2019A1515011948,2022A1515010630)。

摘　　要：城镇化发展导致大量耕地资源被用于建设用地,耕地非农化问题无可避免,为管理和保护广东省耕地资源,探究耕地非农化时空演变及扩散路径。基于人口、经济、效益三方面综合计算广东省各地级市2009—2018年耕地非农化压力指数,运用ArcGIS10.2软件对各地级市的耕地非农化压力进行时空分析,借鉴并构建灰色预测模型预测未来的耕地非农化压力指数。结果表明:(1)时间上,广州市、深圳市、珠海市、东莞市、中山市、潮州市、揭阳市的耕地非农化压力指数变化较明显;(2)空间上,珠三角中心地区的耕地非农化压力明显高于其他地区,其次为粤东地区、粤西地区和粤北地区;(3)采用灰色预测模型预测2022—2030年广东省耕地非农化压力指数呈增长趋势。未来广东省的耕地非农化压力仍会处于增加的趋势,耕地非农化问题仍然突出。The urbanization development leads to a large number of cultivated land resources being used for construction land,and the problem of non-agricultural farmland is inevitable.In order to manage and protect the cultivated land resources in Guangdong Province,the temporal and spatial evolution and diffusion path of non-agricultural farmland are explored.Based on population,economy and benefit,the cultivated land non-agricultural pressure index of prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2009 to 2018 was comprehensively calculated.The ArcGIS10.2 software was used to conduct spatio-temporal analysis of the cultivated land non-agricultural pressure of prefecture-level cities,and the grey prediction model was built for reference to predict the future cultivated land non-agricultural pressure index.The results showed that:(1)In terms of time,the change of non-agricultural pressure index of cultivated land in Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhuhai,Dongguan,Zhongshan,Chaozhou and Jieyang was obvious;(2)Spatially,the non-agricultural pressure of cultivated land in the central region of the Pearl River Delta is significantly higher than that in other regions,followed by East,West and North of Guangdong;(3)Using the grey prediction model,the non-agricultural pressure index of cultivated land in Guangdong Province was predicted to increase during 2022-2030.In the future,the pressure of non-agricultural cultivation of cultivated land in Guangdong Province will continue to increase,and the problem of non-agricultural cultivation of cultivated land is still prominent.

关 键 词：耕地 非农化 时空演变 扩散路径 广东省 

分 类 号：S341.1[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]