旅游业对国民经济的内在传导机制研究——以广东旅游经济发展效应为例  

Research on the Internal Transmission Mechanism of Tourism to National Economy——Taking the Development Effect of Guangdong Tourism Economy as an Example

作　　者：李朝军[1] LI Chaojun(Tourism College,Zhaoqing University,Zhaoqing Guangdong 526061,China)

机构地区：[1]肇庆学院旅游学院,广东肇庆526061

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第9期114-123,共10页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71774176);广东省哲学社会科学基金项目(GD15XLS07).

摘　　要：旅游业发展带动经济增长的假说始终存在争议,是国内外学界持续关注尚未形成统一结论的焦点问题.为研究旅游业发展与国民经济增长之间的作用机理,该文基于内生经济增长理论,就旅游业对国民经济的传导机制进行研究.从生产要素投入量和生产率两个方面阐述旅游业对国民经济增长的影响,在此基础上选取影响国民经济发展质量的解释变量构建指标体系,并构建旅游业发展对国民经济增长效率的影响模型.为进一步研究旅游业发展与国民经济增长之间的内在机理,构建旅游业通过不同经济传输渠道间接影响国民经济增长的传导机制模型,并以广东旅游经济发展效应为例进行实证检验.研究结果表明:旅游业专业化水平在当期对广东旅游经济增长效率的影响不显著,但其在滞后一期对旅游经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用.计量分析不同传导机制在旅游业对国民经济增长中发挥的间接影响作用发现:旅游业发展带动人力资本投入增加,但通过这一传导机制对经济增长产生负向影响;旅游业发展促进了物质资本累积,但这一传导机制对经济增长的影响不显著;通过提高创新水平和对外开放程度,能够实现旅游与国民经济增长之间的正向传导作用.Various approaches and controversial hypothesis were proposed to examine the dynamic relationship between tourism growth and economic growth.In order to study the mechanism of the relationship between tourism development and national economic growth,this paper studied the transmission mechanism of tourism to the national economy based on the theory of endogenous economic growth.Firstly,the impact of tourism on national economic growth was expounded from the aspects of production factor input and productivity.On this basis,the index system of explanatory variables affecting the quality of economic development was selected to construct the impact of tourism development on national economic growth efficiency model.In order to further study the internal mechanism between tourism development and national economy,a transmission mechanism model,in which tourism indirectly affected the national economic growth through different economic transmission channels,was constructed.The research results prove that the level of specialization of tourism industry in the Guangdong province has an inconspicuous effect on the growth efficiency of the national economy,while the development of the delayed phase of tourism has a significant positive effect on the growth efficiency of the national economy.Quantitative method was adopted to analyze the different transmission mechanisms in the indirect impact of tourism on the economic growth.It is found that the development of tourism drives the increase of human resources and capital investment,while it has a negative impact on economic growth through this transmission mechanism.The development of tourism promotes the accumulation of material capital,but the contribution of this transmission mechanism on economic growth is not significant.By improving the level of innovation and the degree of opening up,tourism and national economic growth can be achieved.

关 键 词：旅游业 国民经济增长 传导机制 内生经济增长理论 面板数据 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]