陆面资料对复杂地形气温和降水模拟的影响——以济南市为例  

Impact of Different Land Surface Data on Temperature and Precipitation Simulation over Complex Terrain——Take City of Ji nan as an Example

作　　者：李恬 李怀刚 何建军[3] 郑丽娜 何鹏程 LI Tian;LI Huaigang;HE Jianjun;ZHENG Lina;HE Pengcheng(Ji'nan Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Ji'nan 250102,China;Shandong Meteorological Data Center,Ji'nan 250031,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省济南市气象局,济南250102 [2]山东省气象数据中心,济南250031 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第9期124-131,共8页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MD012);山东省气象局预报员专项(SDYBY2018-05);山东省气象局引导项目(2021SDYD23).

摘　　要：济南地区南部为山区,北部为平原,南北海拔跨度较大,地形条件复杂.为了探究天气研究与预报模型(Weather Research and Forecasting,WRF)的模拟结果对不同陆面资料的敏感性,本研究使用中分辨率成像光谱仪(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,MODIS)土地利用和植被覆盖两类陆面资料替换模式中默认的陆面资料,分别进行了4组敏感性试验,模拟了济南地区2020年7月气温和降水.结果表明:模拟的温度误差和降水误差普遍为南部山区偏大,北部平原偏小;只改变土地利用资料使北部平原地区的温度模拟误差显著减小(均方根误差、平均误差分别减小了0.2~1.0℃和0.2~0.8℃);只改变植被覆盖资料使得南部山区的温度和降水的模拟误差明显减小,模拟的温度均方根误差减小了0.2~1.2℃,模拟的日降水量均方根误差减小了0.2~1.2 mm/d;同时改变土地利用和植被覆盖资料模拟的温度和降水的效果最好,全市大部分站点的模拟误差有明显减小.降水对植被覆盖资料的敏感性比气温更高.Ji nan,the capital of Shandong Province,has a mountainous area in the South and a plain in the north,with significant north-to-south altitudes and complex topographic conditions.To explore the sensitivity of the simulation results of the WRF model to different land surface data,we used MODIS land use and vegetation fraction to replace the default land surface data in the model.We conducted 4 sensitivity experiments to simulate the temperature and precipitation in July 2020 in the Ji nan area.The simulated temperature and precipitation errors are generally larger in the southern mountainous areas and smaller in the northern plains.Only changing the land use data can significantly reduce the temperature simulation error in the northern plain area(root mean square error,mean bias decreases by 0.2-1.0℃and 0.2-0.8℃).Only changing the vegetation fraction data can significantly reduce the simulation error of temperature and precipitation in the southern mountainous area.The simulated temperature root mean square error is reduced by 0.2-1.2℃,and the simulated daily precipitation root mean square error is reduced by 0.2-1.2 mm/d.The simulation effect of changing the temperature and precipitation in Ji nan using both land use and vegetation fraction data is the best.The simulation errors of most stations in the city have been significantly reduced.Compared with temperature,precipitation is more sensitive to vegetation fraction data.

关 键 词：MODIS陆面资料 数值模拟 气温 降水 复杂地形 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]