西藏主要流域年径流的变化趋势及其原因  

Change trends of runoffs in major river basins in Tibetan Autonomous Region and their causes

作　　者：叶汀 杨汉波[1] 霍军军[2] YE Ting;YANG Hanbo;HUO Junjun(State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Water Resources Comprehensive Utilization,Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430012,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学水圈科学与水利工程全国重点实验室,北京100084 [2]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430012

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2023年第9期46-57,共12页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51979140);云南省重点研发计划项目(202203AA080010)。

摘　　要：青藏高原是受气候变化影响最为明显的地区之一,气候变化驱动下的径流变化趋势及其原因备受关注。该研究采用Mann-Kendall检验和Pettitt突变点检验,分析了西藏自治区11个水文站1980—2016年径流深的变化规律;并采用基于Choudhury-Yang方程的气候弹性法,量化了年降水、年潜在蒸发以及下垫面变化对年径流深的影响。结果表明,研究区年径流深总体呈不显著上升趋势,多个流域在1997年左右发生突变;雅鲁藏布江下游地区年径流深对气候变化和下垫面变化的敏感性明显低于其他地区;年降水量的变化是年径流深变化的主要影响因素,导致所有站点的年径流深增加,但区域差异较为明显,其中对拉萨河流域的影响最大。The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a region impacted most dramatically by climate change.The trends of changes in the river runoff and their causes have attracted much attention.In this study,the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test are used to detect the runoff variations from 1980 to 2016 at 11 hydrological stations in the Tibetan Autonomous Region,and the climate elasticity method based on the Choudhury-Yang equation is used to quantify the effects of precipitation,potential evaporation,and underlying surface changes on annual runoff changes.The results show that the annual runoff in the study area presents an insignificant upward trend,and has an abrupt point around 1997.The sensitivity of the runoff to climate change and underlying surface change is the lowest in the lower reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River.Precipitation is the main factor responsible for annual runoff change and its increase leads to a runoff increase in all basins,but this impact exhibits an obvious regional difference with a spike in the Lhasa River basin.

关 键 词：Budyko框架 归因分析 气候弹性法 青藏高原 径流变化 TPHiPr降水数据集 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]