人工智能与国际关系:预期与变革  

Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:Expectations and Transformations

作　　者：池志培[1] Chi Zhipei(Institute of Defence Economics and Manage-ment,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国防经济与管理研究院

出　　处：《战略决策研究》2023年第5期26-46,103,共22页Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“美国对华科技遏制战略的国内政治与政策工具研究”(项目编号:22BGJ006)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：人工智能已成为当下最为热门的技术之一,被认为将引发新一轮的工业革命。人工智能将极大地影响国际关系的发展。当下对人工智能决定性能力的预期导致了更为激烈的国际竞争,尤其是美国对中国全方位的科技遏制。讨论科技对国际关系的影响,可以从技术的颠覆性和扩散性两个维度进行分析。中期来看,颠覆性一般而扩散性强的弱人工智能技术很难改变大国主导的权力格局,但是其可能通过对国内社会和政治的影响进而影响国际关系。长期来看,强人工智能的出现具有巨大的颠覆性,将挑战人类的自我认知和身份,并将在此基础上重新建构国际关系。我们既要避免高估人工智能的变革潜力,也需避免低估人类的适应力,而目前最为关键的是避免因为对人工智能的想象而导致国际冲突。Artificial Intelligence has become one of the hottest technologies of the moment and is also believed to trigger a new industrial revolution.Artificial intelligence will also greatly affect the development of international relations.At present,the expectation of the decisive capacity of AI has led to more intense international competition,especially the all-round technological containment of China by the United States.When discussing the impact of technology on inter⁃national relations,one can look at both the disruptiveness and diffusion of technology.In the medium term,weak AI technologies that are generally less disruptive but highly diffusive will hardly change the power pattern among the major powers,but they may influence international relations through their impact on domestic society and politics.In the long term,the emergence of strong AI is hugely disruptive and will challenge human self-perception and identity,and will subsequently reconfigure international relations.We need not overestimate the transforma⁃tive potential of AI or underestimate resilience of human,while what is the most critical now is to avoid international conflict as a result of hyping AI.

关 键 词：人工智能 大国技术竞争 技术颠覆性 技术扩散 技术政治 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系] TP18[政治法律—政治学]