新疆县域棉花产量空间分异及驱动因素  

Spatial Differentiation and Driving Factors of Cotton Yield at County Level in Xinjiang

作　　者：蒲娟 余国新[1] 王娇 李明亮 PU Juan;YU Guo-xin;WANG Jiao;LI Ming-liang(College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第7期167-178,共12页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费项目“高质量发展下新疆棉花产业组织模式优化与支持政策研究”(XJEDU2022P033)。

摘　　要：采用Theil指数、空间自相关、标准差椭圆等方法对2000—2017年新疆县域棉花产量的空间分异特征进行了分析,基于“N-T-P-S-P”五维视域选取关键驱动因素,通过建立多种空间计量模型探寻了驱动新疆县域棉花产量空间分异的因素。结果表明:新疆棉花生产总量呈波动式交替变化,不同地域棉花产量的增减趋势及变化幅度各不相同,区域差距扩大;棉花产量重心位于环塔盆地棉区,沿“东北—西南—东北”的轨迹移动,基本保持“北进西移”的态势,棉花生产的标准差椭圆总体变化幅度不大,呈“东北—西南”的格局;棉花生产呈正向空间自相关,热点区集中分布在环塔盆地和天山北坡棉区,冷点区则位于吐哈盆地棉区;新疆县域棉花产量受自然、政策环境、社会经济等外在因素及技术条件、生产投入等内在驱动因素共同作用,其中日照时数、机械化水平、棉花目标价格政策等变量对县域棉花产量有正向影响,而城镇化率、政府对资源的控制能力等变量对其有负向影响;新疆棉花产量、区域棉花生产重心随时间变化而改变,棉花生产在空间上呈县域差异性,这是多种因素共同作用的结果,且不同因素对新疆各个县域棉花产量的影响程度不同。Theil index,spatial autocorrelation,and standard deviation ellipse were used to analyze the spatial differentiation characteristics of cotton yield at county level in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2017,and key driving factors were selected based on the five-dimensional view of“N-T-P-S-P”.The spatial differentiation factors of cotton yield at county level in Xinjiang were explored by establishing various spatial econometric models.The results show that the total cotton production in Xinjiang is fluctuating and changing alternately,with different trends and magnitude of change in cotton production in different regions,and regional disparities are widening.The centre of gravity of cotton production is located in the cotton region of the Ruta Basin,moving along the trajectory of“northeast-southwest-northeast”,maintaining the trend of“northward and westward”.The overall change in the standard deviation ellipse of cotton production is low,with a“northeast-southwest”pattern.Cotton production is positively spatially autocorrelated.Hotspot areas are concentrated in the cotton areas of the Huita Basin and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,and cold spot areas are located in the cotton areas of the Tuha Basin.Cotton production at county level in Xinjiang is affected by the combination of external socio-economic,natural and policy environment and internal technology and inputs,among which sunshine hours,mechanization level and cotton target price policy have positive effects on county cotton production,while urbanization rate and government’s ability to control resources have negative effects on it.Cotton production in Xinjiang and the regional cotton production centre of gravity changes over time,and cotton production is spatially county-level,which is the result of a combination of factors,and diverse factors have different degrees of influence on cotton production in each county of Xinjiang.

关 键 词：棉花生产 空间分异 驱动因素 新疆 产量 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]