养老金体制改革的代际分配与经济增长效应  

The Effect of Intergenerational Distribution and Economic Growth of Pension System Reform

作　　者：朱媛 张苏[2] Zhu Yuan;Zhang Su

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院 [2]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2023年第9期103-120,共18页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“老龄化背景下兼顾经济增长与代际公平目标的养老金制度研究”(项目编号:21BJL037)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章通过构建理论模型探究了人口老龄化背景下,养老金体制改革的经济增长和代际分配效应,以及可以兼顾经济增长和代际公平的养老金体制的改革路径。在老龄化背景下,如果中央计划者选择单一的现收现付制,会通过降低储蓄和子代人力资本投资抑制经济增长;如果中央计划者选择单一的基金积累制,养老金的工资替代率将低于现收现付制,从而加大代际分配的不公平性;混合养老金体制可以兼顾经济增长和代际公平,中央计划者可以通过调整混合养老金体制的参数实现经济增长和代际公平之间的帕累托改进:首先,应通过调整子代教育投资和养老支出的比例来优化财政支出,实现经济增长的潜能;其次,应调整社会产出转移给老年人的份额来使增加的社会产出由劳动力和老年人共享,从而兼顾代际公平。This article explores the economic growth and intergenerational distribution effects of pension system reform in the context of population aging by constructing a theoretical model,as well as the pension system reform path that can balance economic growth and intergenerational equity.In the context of aging,if central planners choose a single pay as you go system,it will suppress economic growth by reducing savings and investment in offspring human capital;If central planners choose a single fund accumulation system,the wage substitution rate of pensions will be lower than the pay as you go system,thereby increasing the unfairness of intergenerational distribution;The mixed pension system can balance economic growth and intergenerational equity,and central planners can achieve Pareto improvement between economic growth and intergenerational equity by adjusting the parameters of the mixed pension system.Firstly,fiscal expenditure should be optimized by adjusting the proportion of education investment and pension expenditure for future generations to achieve the potential for economic growth;Secondly,the share of social output transferred to the elderly should be adjusted to ensure that the increased social output is shared between the labor force and the elderly,thus balancing intergenerational equity.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老金体制改革 经济增长 代际公平 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]