模型在城市内涝风险预警平台中的应用探索及思考  

Exploration and Reflection on the Application of Model in Urban Waterlogging Risk Early Warning Platform

作　　者：宁存鑫 汤钟 桂发二 刘慧霞 方纬 NING Cun‑xin;TANG Zhong;GUI Fa‑er;LIU Hui‑xia;FANG Wei(Zhejiang Keep Soft Technology Co.Ltd.,Hangzhou 310051,China;Urban Planning&Design Institute of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江贵仁信息科技股份有限公司,浙江杭州310051 [2]深圳市城市规划设计研究院股份有限公司,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2023年第16期29-34,共6页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0802507)。

摘　　要：信息化技术在城市管理中发挥着重要作用,目前各类业务的管理平台不断涌现,城市内涝风险预警平台同样助力城市风险应对与应急管理,但常规预警平台依靠监测报警或人工上报灾情的形式在预见期及决策支持方面有其局限性。水文水动力模型作为人们认识自然水循环规律、研究特定情景下所关注问题的工具,在规划、设计中被广泛应用。由于模型具备基于已知历史情景预测评估未发生情景的特性,其在日常管理中的应用,即与平台结合可突破常规平台预见期瓶颈,提前准确“看到”风险从而提供决策支持方面的探索同样值得关注。简述了模型在城市内涝风险预警系统中应用的技术路线,提出了模型应用形式的三个发展阶段,介绍了模型计算内涝风险分析结果的四种可视化形式,并对模型与平台耦合应用未来发展进行了思考。Information technology is playing an increasingly important role in urban management.With the emergence of various business management platforms,urban waterlogging risk early warning platform also helps urban risk response and emergency management.However,the conventional early warning platform relies on monitoring alarm or manual reporting of disasters in the form of prediction and decision support has its limitations.As a tool for people to understand the law of natural water cycle and study the problems concerned in specific scenarios,hydrological hydrodynamic model is widely used in planning and design.Because the model has the characteristics of predicting and evaluating non‑occurrence scenarios based on known historical scenarios,its application in daily management is combined with the platform to break through the bottleneck of conventional platform prediction.Moreover,the exploration of“seeing”risks in advance and providing decision support is also worthy of attention.This paper briefly describes the technical route of the application of the model in the urban waterlogging risk early warning system,puts forward three development stages of the model application form,and introduces four visual forms of the analysis results of the waterlogging risk analysis results calculated by the model.Finally,the future development of the coupling application of the model and the platform is considered.

关 键 词：模型 内涝风险预警 耦合 可视化 

分 类 号：TU99[建筑科学—市政工程]