基于CBR的招投标合谋行为贝叶斯网络致因分析  

Bayesian Network Causal Reasoning of Bidding Collusion Based on CBR

作　　者：张兵[1] 李玉 ZHANG Bing;LI Yu(College of Architectural Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学建筑科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2023年第4期30-37,88,共9页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71701179)。

摘　　要：为精准遏制招投标合谋倾向,需厘清合谋行为网络进而多属性分析招投标合谋行为致因因素,对实证案例信息提取与重用是其关键前提。因此,首先搜集了2020—2021年招投标裁判文书清洗得到256条有效数据,通过文献梳理构建指标体系;其次,利用CBR检索匹配对相似案例分组,并进行描述性数据统计;最后,总结出招投标合谋的主要行为方式,并通过贝叶斯逆向推理和敏感性分析得出涉案主体(施工方)、职务级别(一把手)、权力级别(高)、城市等级(三四线)为关键致因因素,强调了在招投合谋治理中应加大对中小规模城市施工方权力集中者的审查力度,加强了合谋治理的针对性。同时,CBR重用裁判文书信息,有利于招投标合谋领域历史数据的获取。In order to accurately curb the tendency of bidding collusion,it is necessary to clarify the collusion behavior network,and then analyze the causes of bidding collusion with multiple attributes.The extraction and reuse of empirical case information is the key premise.Therefore,firstly,256 valid data are collected from the cleaning of bidding judgment documents from 2020 to 2021,and the index system is constructed through literature combing.Secondly,similar cases are grouped by CBR retrieval matching,and descriptive data statistics are carried out.Finally,the main behavior modes of bidding collusion are summarized.Through Bayesian reverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis,it is concluded that the main body involved(construction party),position level(top leader),power level(high)and city level(third and fourth tier)are the key factors.It is emphasized that the review of power centralizers of construction parties in small and medium-sized cities should be strengthened in the governance of bidding collusion,which strengthens the pertinence of collusion governance.At the same time,CBR is conducive to the reuse of judgment document information and the acquisition of historical data in the field of bidding collusion.

关 键 词：招投标 合谋治理 CBR 贝叶斯网络 致因分析 

分 类 号：F284[经济管理—国民经济] TU723.2[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]