基于缺水量与保证率“双控”的水资源优化配置模型及应用  

Water resources optimal allocation model based on“double control”of water shortage and guarantee rate and its application

作　　者：卢瑶 马真臻[1] 贺华翔[1] 谢新民[1] 顾艳玲[1] LU Yao;MA Zhenzhen;HE Huaxiang;XIE Xinmin;GU Yanling(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第8期91-103,共13页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000204);国家自然科学基金(51609261)。

摘　　要：【目的】水资源配置是缓解干旱区河道外社会经济发展用水挤占河道内生态环境用水问题的重要手段。为有效保障河道内外用水需求,构建了缺水量与保证率“双控”的水资源优化配置模型。【方法】在以缺水量最小为目标的传统水资源优化配置基础上,以社会经济供水保证率和河道内生态供水保证率为约束,采用多重迭代求解策略,通过分层次调整供需两侧决策参数,给出区域缺水量最小、供水保证率达标、河道内外用水协调的水资源合理配置方案。【结果】模型应用于新疆精河县,结果显示,推荐方案2035年缺水率为0.2%,农业、精河控制断面、下游入湖水量的供水保证率分别达到84%、83%、51%,与未进行保证率控制的配置方案相比,缺水率下降了9.9%,农业、精河控制断面、下游入湖水量的供水保证率分别提升了32%、3%、10%。【结论】结果表明,在水资源配置中考虑缺水量、保证率双重控制能有效降低缺水率与提升保证率,协调河道内外用水关系,对保障区域供水安全与生态安全十分必要。该模型可为干旱区水资源合理配置提供一种有效的技术工具。[Objective]Water resource allocation is an important mean to alleviate the problem that water for social and economic development outside the river occupies water for the ecological environment inside the river in arid areas.To effectively guarantee the water demand inside and outside the river,a water resource optimal allocation model with“double control”of water shortage and guarantee rate is constructed.[Methods]Based on the traditional optimal allocation of water resources with the minimum water shortage as the goal,the social and economic water supply guarantee rate and the ecological water supply guarantee rate inside the river are taken as constraints.The multiple iterative solution strategy is adopted to adjust the decision parameters on both sides of supply and demand hierarchically,and the scheme of water resource rational allocation with the minimum regional water shortage,the guarantee rate of water supply reaching the standard,and the coordination of water use inside and outside the river is given.The model is applied to Jinghe County,Xinjiang.[Results]The results show that the water shortage rate of the recommended scheme is 0.2%in 2035,and the water supply guarantee rates of agriculture,Jinghe control section,and downstream inflow are 84%,83%,and 51%,respectively.Compared with the configuration scheme without guarantee rate control,the water shortage rate decreases by 9.9%,and the water supply guarantee rates of agriculture,Jinghe control section,and downstream inflow increase by 32%,3%,and 10%,respectively.[Conclusion]The results show that considering the dual control of water shortage and guarantee rate in water resource allocation can effectively reduce the water shortage rate and improve the guarantee rate,and coordinate the relationship between water use inside and outside the river,which is necessary to ensure regional water supply security and ecological security.This model can provide an effective technical tool for the rational allocation of water resources in arid areas.

关 键 词：供水保证率 生态需水 社会经济用水 水资源优化配置 新疆 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]