城市规模分布与南北经济分化  

City⁃Size Distribution and North⁃South Economic Differentiation

作　　者：丁从明[1] 黄文静 DING Congming;HUANG Wenjing(Chongqing University,400044)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学公共管理学院,400044

出　　处：《财贸经济》2023年第9期108-125,共18页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“政商关系视角下中国南北经济分化生成机制与治理路径研究”(20BJL100)。

摘　　要：伴随东部、中部、西部经济发展差距的收敛,以“南快北慢”为主要特征的中国南北经济分化现象正逐步凸显。基于南方城市更多表现为“百花齐放”,北方地区表现为“一枝独秀”的特征事实,本文尝试从南北城市规模分布差异这一视角探讨南北区域发展不平衡背后的成因。本文利用南北城市配对思想构造南北比值样本进行实证分析,实证结果显示:南北不同的城市发展逻辑,导致南北城市规模分布存在显著差异。“百花齐放”的南方城市之间的竞争,促进了南方经济的均衡发展;而“一枝独秀”的北方城市发展战略带来的虹吸效应降低了北方整体资源配置效率,由此造成南北经济的分化。地区内部资源配置不合理,是影响地区之间经济发展不平衡的重要原因。本文的研究对理解南北经济分化这一“新情况”具有重要的政策启示:深入实施区域协调发展战略,解决区域之间发展不平衡问题的关键,在于实现区域内部发展的平衡性,“一花独放不是春,百花齐放春满园”,地区内部形成基于市场的资源集聚,才能带来大市场的规模效应,实现高质量区域经济发展格局。In recent years,despite the economic miracle China has created,the Chinese economy has been plagued by the seriously imbalanced regional economic development.This problem not only hinders China's economy from reaching a new level,but also with the passage of time has gradually shifted China away from the“east⁃west gap”to the“north⁃south gap.”In fact,China's North⁃South economic gap has always existed,but since China's economic development has entered the new normal,under the pressure of growth shift and structural adjustment,the phenomenon of“fast growth in the south and slow growth in the north”has become increasingly prominent,and gradually attracted widespread attention from the academia and the rest of society.From the perspective of the difference in the size distribution of northern and southern cities,this paper attempts to construct a North⁃South ratio sample with the idea of North⁃South city pairing for empirical analysis,and deeply explore the causes behind the North⁃South regional development imbalance.It is found that the city size distribution has a significant negative effect on the North⁃South economic differentiation.The increasing concentration of central cities in the south or their decreasing concentration in the north leads to the increasing concentration ratio of central cities in north and south,which will narrow the North⁃South economic gap.Moreover,according to the particularity of the empirical model and ratio regression,it can be further found that if the economic growth level of the North remains unchanged,the average annual GDP growth rate of the South will decrease by about 2.6%for every one standard deviation increase in the concentration degree of central cities.Accordingly,if the economic development level of the South remains unchanged,the average annual GDP growth rate of the North as a whole will increase by about 1.2%when the concentration of central cities in the north decreases by one standard deviation.Overall,the difference in the concentration o

关 键 词：城市规模分布 南北经济分化 区域协调发展 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]