房价升值预期、财富幻觉与家庭消费——基于《国六条》的证据  

Expectations of Housing Price Appreciation,Wealth Illusion and Household Consumption:Evidence from the“National Article Six”

作　　者：王岳龙[1] 蔡玉龙 唐宇晨 WANG Yuelong;CAI Yulong;TANG Yuchen(Institute of Industrial Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics;School of Statistics,Beijing Normal University;School of Applied Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics;Institute of International Economics,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学规制与竞争研究中心、应用经济学院 [2]北京师范大学统计学院 [3]江西财经大学应用经济学院 [4]南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所 [5]江西财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2023年第9期116-137,共22页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自科基金项目(72164013)的资助。

摘　　要：预期对未来的房价变化和由此引发的消费变动有着非常重要的影响,本文通过合并2010~2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)和中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,基于2006年5月出台的《关于调整住房供应结构稳定住房价格的意见》(以下简称《国六条》),利用断点回归方法研究了由于《国六条》中税收和信贷的优惠,提高了对90平方米以下中小户型商品房的未来升值预期,从而导致潜在住房财富增加对家户消费支出的影响。研究发现,预期的住房价格增加1%,会显著地促进家庭消费支出上升1.07%,并且家庭对住房价格的过度预期造成了“财富幻觉”,这会进一步强化房价预期对家庭消费支出的影响。从分项消费上看,房价升值预期主要提高了食品、衣着、医疗保健等支出,一定程度上促进了消费结构升级。本文进一步发现潜在住房财富的增加并没有改变家户的信贷约束,这可能与我国不完善的信贷市场以及传统的消费信贷观念有很大的关系。最后本文认为在后疫情时代,合理的房价上涨预期管理,对实现经济增长和房价稳定的双赢具有重要意义。With the rapid economic development,China’s real estate market has experienced significant growth.Since 2003,housing prices have been rising rapidly,leading to a strong general expectation of future price increases among the population.In response,the government has implemented a series of policies aimed at controlling real estate prices and cooling down the market.Among these policies,the“Opinions on Adjusting the Housing Supply Structure and Stabilizing Housing Prices”(referred to as“National Article Six”)and other differential housing control policies targeting purchase area and holding period were introduced.Since May 2006,small and medium-sized residential properties below 90 square meters have faced significant appreciation expectations due to the lower down payment ratio,reduced business tax,and stamp duty rates on future transactions.This was the first sudden policy of differential control based on purchase area and was not widely anticipated by the public,thus having a noticeable impact on housing prices.By combining data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)and the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)conducted from 2010 to 2017,this study utilizes the National Article Six policy implemented in May 2006.It employs a regression discontinuity design based on housing area to investigate the impact of potential housing wealth increase on household consumption expenditure for small and medium-sized residential properties below 90 square meters.The tax and credit incentives provided by the National Article Six policy have heightened the expectations of future appreciation for this type of housing,thereby influencing household consumption expenditure.The study finds that a 1%increase in expected housing prices significantly stimulates a 1.07%increase in household consumption expenditure.Moreover,excessive expectations of housing prices create a“wealth illusion,”further strengthening this effect.In terms of the specific consumption categories,the rising expected housing prices primarily drive i

关 键 词：预期住房价值 财富幻觉 居民消费 断点回归 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]