延迟退休、隔代照料与青年人就业  

Postponed Retirement,Grandparenting and Youth Employment

作　　者：邹铁钉[1] 殷伟策 ZOU Tieding;YIN Weice(School of Economics,Zhejiang Gongshang University)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2023年第9期157-177,共21页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJL091)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建了一个包含隔代照料文化、干中学效应与人力资本代际传递的OLG模型,用于考察延迟退休对青年人就业的影响。研究发现,延迟退休对时间投入和物质投入两种形式隔代照料的抑制和促进作用,通过影响个体人力资本积累以及家庭生育数量与质量之间的替代关系,从就业意愿、就业能力和就业机会三个维度改变青年人的就业处境。随着延迟退休力度的加强,青年人的就业能力呈先上升后下降的“倒U”型变动趋势,就业意愿与就业机会则在总体上保持下降趋势。养老保险制度介入后,并没有改变延迟退休对青年人就业的影响方向,只是在不同制度安排下对三个分维度的影响出现了分化。其中,现收现付制下的就业意愿与就业机会要高于基金制,而基金制下的就业能力要高于现收现付制。幼儿照护支持体系不到位以及相关服务市场发育滞后,是协调老年人延迟退休与青年人就业关系的制约因素。从制度、政策和服务市场体系建设角度为青年人生育提供支持,是提升延迟退休政策效果、改善青年人就业处境的探索方向。In this study,delayed retirement and intergenerational care are introduced into the intergenerational overlap model of endogenous human capital accumulation,and the impact of delayed retirement on young people’s employment is examined.The study found that the impact of delayed retirement on youth employment was uncertain.On the one hand,delaying retirement will crowd out intergenerational care time and promote income from intergenerational care.The former increases the cost of childbirth for young people and decreases the willingness to have children,and under the substitution of quantity and quality,parents increase investment in their children’s education and promote the growth of human capital.In the latter,the rise in income from generational care and the increase in individual investment in education will promote the accumulation of human capital for young people,which will promote the employment of young people.However,delayed retirement has affected generational care mechanisms,increasing the burden of childbearing among young people and reducing their working hours,which not only inhibits their willingness to work but also prevents them from accumulating human capital at work.Moreover,the increase in fertility burden will lead to a decline in fertility and the population growth rate,which,when combined with the DMP theory,will have a negative impact on young people’s employment opportunities.Based on the previous text,employability,employment willingness,and employment opportunities are the three dimensions through which delayed retirement affects the employment situation of young people.Specifically,when the retirement policy is implemented,there would be three outcomes.Firstly,the time cost for young people to children care would increase,and the labor participation rate would decrease.From the mechanism of the learning-by-doing effect,this will inhibit the accumulation of human capital and improve the employment ability of young people.The simulation analysis reveals that if the retirement age co

关 键 词：延迟退休 隔代照料 青年人就业 就业意愿 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]