美国中期选举涉华议题背后的国内政治变化  

The China Issues in US Mid-term Election Based on Domestic Political Change

作　　者：孙冰岩 王栋[2,3] Sun Bingyan;Wang Dong(Department of International Politics,University of International Relations;International Relations,Peking University;the Sino-Foreign Cultural Exchange Research Center,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院国际政治系 [2]北京大学国际关系学院 [3]北京大学中外人文交流研究基地

出　　处：《国际关系研究》2023年第4期101-132,M0006,M0007,共34页Journal of International Relations

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“百年变局下全球化进路与人类命运共同体构建研究”(项目编号:21&ZD172)的中期研究成果。

摘　　要：2022年的中期选举是美国对华战略调整与国内战略调整大背景下的首次中期选举。分析本次中期选举中涉华议题的特点及其国内政治动因,对于研判美国国会在两个战略调整背景下如何影响中美关系具有重要的政策意义。本次中期选举在涉华议题方面体现出议题规模空前、议题关联极高、议题与地方政治结合、共和党远比民主党强硬四大特点。导致这些涉华议题出现以上特点的原因,正在于美国基层政治的涉华政治因素正在发生快速变化:美国对华民意认知在恶化,特朗普对共和党对华强硬的影响在增加,共和党将反华纲领化,美国商界的政治影响在削弱。基于本次中期选举体现的美国国内涉华政治因素变化,中期选举结束后的美国国会将在未来的中美关系发展中扮演更加主动和负面的角色。In regard to Sino-US relations,the mid-term election of 2022 is the first elections which occurs with the advent of the strategy adjustment towards internal affairs and US China policy as broad context. Under this background,the analysis of the characteristics and domestic political motives of China-related issues in this midterm election has significant policy implications for the research of the way US Congress affects Sino-US relations. This mid-term elections have been characterized by four major features: the unprecedented scale of China-related issues,the extremely high relevance of the issues,the combination of the issues with local politics,and the fact that the Republican Party is far more assertive than the Democratic Party. The reason for these features of China-related issues is that the China-related political elements of US grassroots politics are changing rapidly: US public perception of China is deteriorating,Trump's influence on the Republican Party's assertiveness towards China is increasing,the Republican Party is turning its anti-China program into a platform,and political influence of the US business community is weakening. Based on the changes in US domestic China-related political factors reflected in this midterm election,the US Congress after the midterm election of 2022 will play a more aggressive and negative role in the future development of Sino-US relations.

关 键 词：中期选举 涉华议题 共和党 美国商会 中美关系 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]