塔利班重新执政后的阿富汗局势与问题  

The Situation and Problems in Afghanistan after the Taliban Return to Power

作　　者：朱永彪[1,2] 胡宁 Zhu Yongbiao;Hu Ning(Center for Belt and Road Studies,Lanzhou University;Center for Afghan Studies,Lanzhou University)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学一带一路研究中心 [2]兰州大学阿富汗研究中心

出　　处：《国际关系研究》2023年第4期133-154,M0007,共23页Journal of International Relations

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“多重危机和博弈加剧背景下的阿富汗安全形势及对策研究”(项目编号:21AGJ014);国家社会科学基金重大项目(项目编号:22VMG042)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2021年8月塔利班重新入主喀布尔,完成了从反政府武装到实际上的“合法”政府身份的转变,其面临的挑战也发生了前所未有的转变。当前阿富汗的政治局势存在一定隐患,经济发展举步维艰,安全形势不容乐观,塔利班履行承诺的情况也毁誉参半。在对外关系方面,塔利班与邻国发生了多次边境冲突,但是周边国家现在整体上仍支持阿富汗的稳定。尽管没有得到国际承认且面临内忧外患多重挑战,塔利班现在依然控制着阿富汗,暂时没有任何其他阿富汗组织有能力挑战其地位。但这并不意味着阿富汗和平问题得到彻底解决,平静的表面下是各方势力在进行新的力量布局,围绕阿富汗问题的博弈正进入到一个新的阶段。In August 2021,the Taliban returned to Kabul,completing the transition from an anti-government force to a de facto "legitimate" government,and facing unprecedented changes in challenges. At present,the political situation in Afghanistan has certain hidden dangers,its economy is struggling,the security situation is not optimistic,and the Taliban's performance in fulfilling its commitments has been met with mixed praise. In terms of foreign relations,the Taliban has had a number of border clashes with neighboring countries,but the neighboring countries are now generally supportive of Afghanistan's stability. Despite being unrecognized internationally and facing multiple challenges at home and abroad,the Taliban is still in control of Afghanistan,and no other Afghan group has yet been able to challenge its position. However,this does not mean that the issue of peace in Afghanistan has been completely resolved. Under the surface of calm,various forces are carrying out new power distribution,and the game around the Afghan issue is entering a new stage.

关 键 词：塔利班 阿富汗 安全形势 恐怖主义 

分 类 号：D737.2[政治法律—政治学]