动力要素成本结构与粮食生产格局变迁:机理与实证  

The Location Layout of Grain Production and Its Driving Factor Cost Structure:Mechanism and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：江立君 张宗毅 钟钰[3] 许伟 JIANG Lijun;ZHANG Zongyi;ZHONG Yu;XU Wei(Nanjing Institute of Agricultural Mechanization,Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs,Nanjing 210014,Jiangsu,China;China Institute for Agricultural Equipment Industry Development,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,Jiangsu,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部南京农业机械化研究所,江苏南京210014 [2]江苏大学中国农业装备产业发展研究院,江苏镇江212013 [3]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [4]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《经济地理》2023年第8期154-164,176,共12页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973074、72373055);国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA056);中央农办农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题(202115);江苏大学农业装备学部项目(NZXB20210301)。

摘　　要：文章解析动力要素成本结构对粮食生产的影响机理,并且基于2000—2020年省级行政区的面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明:①在动力要素成本结构中,机械动力成本占比越高,动力要素成本越低,粮食生产比重越高;总体而言,一地区粮食生产单位面积机械动力成本占比每高于全国平均水平1个百分点,动力要素成本则会比全国平均水平低8.564元,粮食生产比重则会增长0.0678个百分点。②机械动力对人力的替代存在边际技术替代率递减规律。在人力投入数量与动力要素成本高分位点,机械动力投入对减少人力投入数量、降低动力要素成本的边际作用较大。畜力投入不能有效替代人力以降低动力要素成本。③机械动力投入的边际效应受到劳动力价格的影响,劳动力价格越高,机械动力投入对替代人力投入、降低动力要素成本的边际作用越大。我国粮食产销平衡区通过提高机械动力投入实现粮食增产的潜力较大。在粮食生产过程中,应积极促进机械动力对人力和畜力的替代,提高粮食生产能力,优化粮食生产格局,保证国内粮食安全。This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of the driving factor cost structure on grain production,and uses the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions from 2000 to 2020 for empirical analysis.The research results show that:1)When the proportion of machinery cost is higher,the total driving factor cost is lower,and the proportion of grain production is higher.On the whole,for every percentage point higher than the national average of the proportion of machinery cost per unit area in a region,the driving factor cost is 8.564 yuan lower than the national average,and the proportion of grain production increases by 0.0678 percentage points.2)The substitution of machinery for human power follows the regularity of diminishing marginal rate of technical substitution.The higher the quantile of the total driving factor cost and the human power quantity,the greater the marginal effect brought by machinery.The animal power can not replace human power to reduce the driving factor cost.3)The marginal effect of machinery input is affected by labor price,its positive impact increases with the labor prices.The potential of grain production in the balanced area of grain production and marketing is greater than other regions.In conclusion,it is necessary to promote the substitution of machinery for human and animal powers to improve grain production capacity,optimize grain production layout,and ensure domestic food security.

关 键 词：粮食安全 粮食生产格局 动力要素 机械动力 人力和畜力 要素替代 成本结构 

分 类 号：F329.9[经济管理—产业经济]