“8·3”鲁甸地震背景下甘沟流域泥石流危险性评价  

RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEBRIS FLOW IN GAN GOU RIVER BASIN UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF“8·3”LUDIAN EARTHQUAKE

作　　者：阮正峰 霍建宇 李四堂 雷阳 周旭萌 杨加明 罗奕 熊弢 熊太友 郭婷婷[1] RUAN Zeng-feng;HUO Jian-yu;LI Si-tang;LEI Yang;ZHOU Xu-meng;YANG Jia-mnig;LUO Yi;XIONG Tao;XIONG Tai-you;GUO Ting-ting(Faculty of Land Resources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China;Yunnan Geological Engineering Survey and Design Research Institute Co.LTD,Kunming 650093,China;Yunnan Geology and Mineral Geology Engineering Co.LTD,Kunming 650041,China;Sainz Environmental Protection Co.,LTD,Changsha 410007,China;Dongfang Geophysical Exploration Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610213,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明650093 [2]云南地质工程勘察设计研究院有限公司,昆明650093 [3]云南地矿地质工程有限公司,昆明650041 [4]赛恩斯环保股份有限公司,长沙410007 [5]东方地球物理勘探有限公司,成都610213

出　　处：《地质灾害与环境保护》2023年第3期15-22,共8页Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51064012;51264018;41402272);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2018JS029)。

摘　　要：2014年8月云南省鲁甸县发生6.5级地震,位于震源中心地带的甘沟流域受地震影响,诱发大量次生地质灾害,流域内松散堆积物质增加,泥石流灾害的潜在危险增大,对沟口集镇造成威胁。本文基于对甘沟流域野外实地调查,综合考虑降雨对震后泥石流的影响,选取泥石流规模、流域面积、日最大降雨量、主沟长度、相对高差、流域切割密度、不稳定沟床比等7个评价因子,通过调整分辨系数为0.2272的灰色关联法确定其客观权重,并在此基础上采用多因素综合评价方法计算泥石流危险度,对其进行危险性定量评价。结果表明,震后甘沟流域泥石流危险性属中度危险,诱发中等规模泥石流的可能性较大。On August 3,2014,an earthquake occurred in Ludian,Yunnan Province.The Gangou River Basin in the center of the earthquake was affected by the earthquake,which induced a large number of secondary geological disasters.The increase of loose accumulated materials and the potential danger of debris flow disasters posed a threat to the towns in the river mouth.Based on the field investigation of the Gangou watershed,considering comprehensively the impact of rainfall on debris flow after the earthquake,this paper selected seven evaluation factors,such as debris flow scale,drainage area,maximum daily rainfall,main channel length,drainage area relative relief,drainage area cutting density and shifting bed proportion to determine the objective weights through the adjustment of the gray correlation method with the resolution coefficient of 0.2272,on the basis of which,the multi-factor comprehensive evalution method was used to calculate the risk of debris flow and its risk quantitative evaluation.The results showed that the risk of devris flow in Gangou river basin was moderate and the possibility of inducing medium-scale debris flow was greater.

关 键 词：甘沟泥石流 灰色关联法 多因素综合评价法 危险性评价 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]