基于逻辑回归的老年行人事故致伤因素研究  

Study on Accident Causing Factors of Elderly Pedestrians Based on Logistic Regression

作　　者：刘朱紫[1,2] 赵云龙 邹铁方 LIU Zhu-zi;ZHAO Yun-long;ZOU Tie-fang(Changsha Social Work College,Changsha Hunan 410004,China;Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicles of Hunan Province,Changsha Hunan 410114,China;School of Automobile and Mechanical Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha Hunan 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙民政职业技术学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]湖南省工程车辆安全性设计与可靠性技术重点实验室,湖南长沙410114 [3]长沙理工大学汽车与机械工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2023年第8期177-184,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51775056);湖南省教育厅重点项目(22A0236);长沙市自然科学基金项目(kq2208225)。

摘　　要：为了更好地了解老年行人交通事故的特征以及致伤因素,通过网络渠道收集到了事故过程清晰并且完整的166例老年行人车辆碰撞事故视频,并采集了事故时间、地点、道路干湿度、车辆类型、车辆运动轨迹、行人运动学响应及损伤情况等事故信息。166例事故案例中,获得了105例老年行人轻伤、重伤以及死亡的损伤信息。依托所采集到的有效事故数据,通过统计、逻辑回归等方法进行了分析。结果表明:事故多发于白天的无人行道、路面干燥、光照充足处,轿车处于直行状态、车速集中在20~40 km/h,对于行人的碰撞位置主要为侧碰,但碾压事故亦占一定比例;老年行人多为男性、处于行走状态并且在事故中很少对碰撞做出反应;老年行人在通过道路中心线后的事故率明显降低,在未过道路中心线前碰撞发生在道路中部的概率最高;当老年行人头部首先触地时、超低车速(<20 km/h)下、驾驶员在碰撞发生前无反应时、碰撞发生在靠近人行道与/或道路两侧区域时、光照不充足时,更有可能发生重伤以上事故;在事故车辆左转弯过程中,由于冲突点过多及车辆A柱遮挡等导致的事故发生率明显高于车辆右转弯过程,车辆低速下的碾压也比较容易对老年行人造成严重的伤害。In order to better understand the accident characteristics and causing factors of elderly pedestrians,166 elderly pedestrian-vehicle collision videos with clear and complete accident process are collected through network,and the accident information of location,including time,road humidity,vehicle types and vehicle movement tracks,pedestrian kinematics responses and damages,etc are collected.Out of 166 accident cases,the injury information on minor injuries,serious injuries and fatalities of elderly pedestrians of 105 cases are obtained,which is analysed by statistics and Logistic regression.The result shows that(1)Accidents occurred in the daytime,where there is no sidewalk,the road surface is dry and the light is sufficient.The cars are in straight driving states,and the driving speeds is concentrated at 20-40 km/h.The main collision locations for pedestrians are side impact,but crushing accidents also account for a certain proportion.(2)Elderly pedestrians are mostly male,in walking states and rarely react to collisions in accidents.(3)The accident rate of elderly pedestrians after passing road centerline is significantly reduced,and the probability of collisions occurring at the middle of the road before passing the centerline is the highest.(4)There is higher likelihood of serious injury or fatal accident when elderly pedestrian first hit ground with his/her head,at extremely low speed(<20 km/h),when the driver has no reaction before the collision occurs,when the collision occurs near the sidewalk and/or both sides of the road,and when there is insufficient light.(5)During left turn process of the accident vehicle,the accident rate is significantly higher due to too many conflict points and the obstruction of the vehicle’s pillar A compared to the right turn process of the vehicle.The rolling of the vehicle at low speed is also more likely to cause serious harm to elderly pedestrians.

关 键 词：交通工程 事故致伤因素 逻辑回归 老年行人 事故特征 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]