火星极移时变分析与预报  

Time-Varying Analysis and Long-Term Prediction of Mars Pole Motion

作　　者：魏二虎[1] 王恒毅 白小宇 李岩林 刘经南[3] WEI Erhu;WANG Hengyi;BAI Xiaoyu;LI Yanlin;LIU Jingnan(School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University,129 Luoyu Road,Wuhan 430079,China;School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences,388 Lumo Road,Wuhan 430079,China;GNSS Research Centre,Wuhan University,129 Luoyu Road,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学测绘学院,武汉市430079 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,武汉市430079 [3]武汉大学卫星导航定位技术研究中心,武汉市430079

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2023年第10期991-996,共6页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42374015);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1503600)。

摘　　要：火星极移属于火星定向参数,通过对火星极移时间序列周期项进行研究,可以更加深入地了解火星内部结构及大气和潮汐运动的特征与规律。利用NASA提供的NP.ang和NP.ds火星极移序列进行时变分析与预报,时变分析使用快速傅里叶变换(fast Fourier transform,FFT)进行处理。结果表明,NP.ang与NP.ds两组数据的周期项长度基本一致,且与火星年具有很强的相关性。短期预报结果表明,使用差分整合移动平均自回归(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型对NP.ds进行20 d内的短期预报是一个可行的思路;中长期预报结果表明,使用最小二乘外推模型进行NP.ds数据的中长期预报是可行的,且使用准确度更高的周期项进行最小二乘外推模型的拟合,可以显著提高对NP.ds的中长期预报精度。本文研究结果可为火星极移的预报研究提供参考。The Mars pole motion belongs to the Martian orientation parameter.By studying the period term of the Mars pole motion time series,people can have a deeper understanding of the characteristics and laws of the Mars liquid core and mantle structure,as well as the Martian atmosphere and tidal movement.In this paper,we use NP.ang and NP.ds Mars pole motion sequences provided by NASA(National Aeronautics and Space Administration)for time-varying analysis and prediction.The time-variant analysis part uses fast fourier transform(FFT)for processing data,and results show that,the periods of NP.ang and NP.ds are basically the same,and strongly correlate with Martian years.In addition,the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is used to predict NP.ds within 20 days.The experiment results show that it is feasible to use the least square extrapolation model to forecast the NP.ds data in the medium and long term,and the fitting of the least square extrapolation model with more accurate period term can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of NP.ds.These results can provide reference for the prediction of Mars pole motion.

关 键 词：火星极移 JPL星历 周期项提取 短期预报 中长期预报 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]