变质岩区大型高位滑坡的变形监测预报研究  

Deformation Monitoring and Prediction of Large High-Level Landslide in Metamorphic Rock Area

作　　者：李晓斌[1] 白海军 LI Xiaobin;BAI Haijun(School of Engineering Management and Logistics,Shaanxi Railway Institute,1 East-Zhanbei Street,Weinan 714000,China;The Sixth Engineering Co Ltd of CTCE Group,3 Daqing Road,Xi’an 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西铁路工程职业技术学院工程管理与物流学院,陕西省渭南市714000 [2]中国中铁四局集团第六工程有限公司,西安市710000

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2023年第10期1045-1050,共6页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：2023年陕西铁路工程职业技术学院科研基金(2023KYYB-08);2023年渭南市重点研发计划(STYKJ2023-6/ZDYFJH-369)。

摘　　要：以某变质岩区大型高位滑坡变形监测成果为基础,开展既有变形特征分析和变形发展分析。结果表明,CEEMDAN-PSR-KELM-ARIMA模型在滑坡变形预测中具有较强的适用性,所得预测结果的相对误差均值范围为2.00%~2.03%,其方差值也较小,具有较优的预测精度及稳定性;预报等级属于Ⅲ级-橙色预报,为较危险状态;滑坡变形速率具减小趋势,但累积变形仍会进一步增加。Based on deformation monitoring results of certain large high-level landslides in metamorphic rock areas,we carry out existing deformation characteristics analysis and deformation development analysis.The results show that CEEMDAN-PSR-KELM-ARIMA model has strong applicability in landslide deformation prediction,the average range of relative error of the prediction results is 2.00%~2.03%,and its variance value is also small,with better prediction accuracy and stability.Its prediction grade is gradeⅢ-orange prediction,which is in a relatively dangerous state.The landslide deformation rate has a decreasing trend,but the cumulative deformation will still increase.

关 键 词：高位滑坡 分解 极限学习机 变形预测 Manner-Kendall分析法 

分 类 号：P258[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]