日本对华安全战略转型:以威慑力构建为目标  

The Transformation Trend of Japan's Security Strategy towards China:The Goal is to Build Deterrence

作　　者：陆伟[1] Lu Wei

机构地区：[1]同济大学政治与国际关系学院,上海200071

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2023年第5期58-82,I0003,I0004,共27页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“冷战后日本战略文化的转型与我国的对策研究”(编号:18BGJ049)。

摘　　要：近年来日本安全战略的转型持续深化。出于遏制中国的需要,日本综合性地采取军事推回、经济迟滞、制度规锁和意识形态诋毁等多样化的战略工具,表现出鲜明的诉诸威慑的行为特征,构建对华威慑力作为日本安全战略转型的主要取向逐渐清晰化。日本安全战略目标的威慑转向,受战略、实力、政治三方面因素的驱使,历经较长时间的酝酿和实践,特别是受到中美战略博弈和亚太变局的催化,又为威慑力构建逻辑所驱动,其必要性、可能性、有效性的认可在后安倍时代得到进一步强化,将成为较长时期内在日本占据主导地位的安全战略偏好。研究这一问题,对于弄清日本安全战略转型的底层逻辑、重点领域和重点方向,把握其对华战略竞争的形式和性质以及对亚太安全格局和秩序的影响具有现实意义,也能为丰富威慑理论提供有益的探索。In recent years,the transformation of Japan's National Security Strategy(JNSS)has deepened.Out of an urgent need to contain China,Japan has adopted a set of strategic tools that combine military pushback,economic stagnation,institutional blockade,and ideological defamation with the traditional deterrence strategy.This represents a sharp turn in the JNSS,clearly,aiming at building a deterrent force against China.This objective will play a dominant role in Japan's strategic decision-making preference.There are three main reasons for this.Firstly,the transformation of the JNSS has been strongly influenced by strategy,power,and politics.Secondly,it is also Japan's strategic decision to cope with the strategic competition between China and the US,and the Indo-Pacific pattern-changing.Thirdly,Japan's decision logic to build a deterrence force that a deterrence strategy is necessary,possibility and effectiveness has been strengthened in the post-Abe era.It is very significant to study the above JNSS issues.For one thing,the JNSS issues,especially related to the fundamental decision-making logic,critical areas,and priority areas,directly influence the styles and contents in Japan's strategy towards China,as well as on the Indo-Pacific security pattern and order.For another,the study of JNSS issues is also a valuable enrichment for the deterrence theory.

关 键 词：日本安全战略 对华安全战略 战略转型 威慑力 对华威慑 后安倍时代 日本政策精英 

分 类 号：D831.3[政治法律—政治学]