两岸关系变迁研究的“大系统”分析框架初探  

On the“Macro System”Analytical Framework for Changes in Cross-Strait Relations

作　　者：刘国深[1] 何淼 LIU Guo-shen;HE Miao(Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第5期67-79,共13页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目,题略(22ZDA125)。

摘　　要：两岸关系研究中存在着政治因素的作用被过度评价的问题。当民进党执政时期两岸政治关系面临严峻挑战时,两岸经济、社会和文化关系仍保有较强韧性,经贸和社会等领域的两岸依存度不降反升。这种现象表明政治因素对两岸关系变迁的影响虽然很大,但也存在局限性。现有的两岸关系研究模式缺乏基于交叉学科逻辑体系的分析框架。在“系统论”的基础上,引入两岸“大系统”观,以跨学科和学科交叉融合的视野构建两岸关系变迁研究中的“大系统”分析框架,可以更好地阐释两岸“大系统”的结构功能、运行机制和变迁机制,并在两岸关系现实中进行实证检验。两岸“大系统”分析框架显示,相较于政治体系,整体系统环境更具决定性作用,两岸关系变迁的方向和进程是全要素互动的结果。The role of political factors in cross-strait relations has been overestimated.When the Democratic Progressive Party was in power,cross-strait political relations faced significant challenges,while economic,social and cultural ties remained resilient and even strengthened.This suggests that although political factors have a significant impact on crossstrait relations,they also have their limitations.Furthermore,existing research on cross-strait relations lacks a comprehensive analytical framework based on an interdisciplinary perspective.This paper proposes a“macro system”perspective based on system theory and constructs an interdisciplinary analysis framework to better understand the dynamics of crossstrait relations.Additionally,this paper explores the structural functions,operational mechanisms,and change mechanisms of the“macro system”and empirically tests its applicability in the context of cross-strait relations.The analysis reveals that the overall system environment plays a more crucial role in shaping cross-strait relations than the political system,and that changes in cross-strait relations result from the interplay of all relevant factors.

关 键 词：政治体系 环境系统 两岸关系 分析框架 

分 类 号：D0-05[政治法律—政治学]