经济政策不确定性对商业银行信贷供给的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Commercial Bank Credit Supply

作　　者：王千红[1] 王慧敏 WANG Qianhong;WANG Huimin(Glorious Sun School of Business and Management,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051,China)

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200051

出　　处：《河北科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期1-10,共10页Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71971054)。

摘　　要：以2007—2020年中国108家商业银行的非平衡面板数据为样本,探讨经济政策不确定性对商业银行信贷供给规模和结构两方面的影响,并建立了3个间接作用机制。实证研究结果显示:经济政策不确定性加大会显著抑制商业银行的信贷供给规模,且大型国有商业银行更为敏感;随着经济政策不确定性的加大,商业银行会改变其信贷供给结构,将信贷投向风险较小的个人贷款、信用贷款和中长期贷款;信贷资金来源方的储蓄意愿、信贷需求方的贷款需求,在经济政策不确定性影响商业银行信贷供给的过程中,承担着部分中介作用,而货币政策渠道具有一定的遮掩效应。Taking the unbalanced panel data of 108 commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2020 as samples,this paper discussed the impact of China's economic policy uncertainty on the scale and structure of credit supply of commercial banks,and established three indirect action mechanisms.The empirical research results show that the increase of economic policy uncertainty will significantly inhibit the credit supply scale of commercial banks,and the large state-owned commercial banks are more sensitive;With the increase of economic policy uncertainty,commercial banks will change their credit supply structure and invest in personal loans,credit loans and medium and long-term loans with less risk;The saving willingness of the credit fund source and the loan demand of the credit demand side play a partal intermediary role in the process of economic policy uncertainty affecting the credit supply of commercial banks,while the monetary policy channel has a certain masking effect.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 银行信贷供给 储蓄意愿 贷款需求 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832.33[经济管理—金融学]