在国内冲突与国际制裁的困境中寻求出路——缅甸2022年回顾与2023年展望  

Seeking a Way Out from the Dilemma of Civil Conflicts and International Sanction:A Retrospect of 2022 and Prospect of 2023 in Myanmar

作　　者：李忠艳 鲁莹 祝湘辉 Li Zhongyan;Lu Ying;Zhu Xianghui

机构地区：[1]云南大学国际关系研究院 [2]云南大学外国语学院 [3]云南大学缅甸研究院

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2023年第3期31-44,共14页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：2021年国家社会科学基金重大专项(21VGQ012)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：2022年,缅甸国内危机仍未解除,军方与反对力量冲突不断,但缅甸军政权表现出一定韧性。为促进国内政局稳定,同时为赢得国际社会的认可与接纳,军方对内对外均采取了一系列积极措施。政治方面,为增强执政能力,军方改组内阁,进行人事任免;为巩固国家控制权,国家管理委员会继续管控反对力量,处理遗留问题;为顺利推进2023年大选,国家管理委员会促进和平协议签订,整改选举架构,调整《政党注册法》等。经济方面,得益于军方制定的经济复苏计划与《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)的落实,缅甸进出口总额明显增长,旅游业与电力能源领域发展向好。但因受西方国家的制裁影响,外资企业相继撤离缅甸,外国投资低迷,金融业发展倒退,经济复苏面临巨大压力。外交方面,因在“五点共识”落实进展甚微,军方与美欧等西方国家的关系在制裁风波中逐渐恶化;与东盟关系面临巨大考验,有倒退风险,但因维护信誉与声誉之需,东盟仍继续就解决缅甸问题进行积极斡旋。但较为利好的是,在中、印、俄等大国坚持不干涉内政原则的情况下,缅甸得以与中、印保持良好关系,缅俄关系的升温迹象也很明显。2023年,缅甸将继续沿用“大国平衡”外交战略,旨在于复杂的外交局面中维护国家主权的独立自主,推动国家经济和安全发展。军方将积极布局,推进顺利举行全国大选并实现权力平稳移交。但由于缅甸军方与反军方力量之间将持续博弈,大选仍存在不确定性。同时,仍将面临经济复苏及和平进程等多重挑战。In 2022,the domestic crisis in Myanmar remained unresolved,and conflicts between the military and opposition forces continued.However,the Myanmar military regime showed some resilience.In order to stabilize the domestic political situation and win the recognition and acceptance of the international community,the military has taken a series of measures both domestically and externally.In politics,in order to enhance the ability to govern,the military reorganized the cabinet and conducted personnel appointments and dismissals;in order to control the country,the State Administration Council of Myanmar continued to suppress opposition forces and addressed remaining issues;In order to smoothly advance the 2023 general election,the State Administration Council urged negotiations to sign a peace agreement,rectified the electoral system,and adjusted the Political Parties Registration Law.In terms of the economy,thanks to the economic recovery plan formulated by the military and the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement,Myanmar's total import and export volume has increased significantly,and the tourism and electric power sectors are developing well.However,due to the sanctions imposed by Western countries,foreign investment has successively withdrawn from Myanmar,resulting in a downturn in foreign investment,a setback in the development of the financial industry,and enormous pressure on economic recovery.On the diplomatic front,the relations with ASEAN is facing enormous challenges and risks regression.However,due to the need to maintain its credibility and reputation,AsEAN continues to actively mediate on resolving the Myanmar issue.However,what is more favorable is that Myanmar has been able to maintain good relations with China and India and there are obvious signs of warming up in Myanmar-Russia relationsunder the circumstance that major countries such as China,India and Russia adhere to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs.In 2023,Myanmar will continue the"balan

关 键 词：缅甸 政治冲突 经济发展 “大国平衡” 和平进程 

分 类 号：F133.7[经济管理—世界经济] D733.7[政治法律—政治学]