基于PSR和信息敏感性的城市韧性度评价:以北京市为例  

Evaluation of urban resilience based on PSR model and information sensitivity:a case study of Beijing

作　　者：王启飞 赵逸涵 张慧 王健[3] 王亚飞[3] WANG Qifei;ZHAO Yihan;ZHANG Hui;WANG Jian;WANG Yafei(School of Mechanical-Electronic and Automobile Engineering,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102616,China;Beijing Academy of Emergency Management Science and Technology,Beijing 101101,China;Research Center of Urban Operation Safety,Beijing Academy of Emergency Management Science and Technology,Beijing 100035,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学机电与车辆工程学院,北京102616 [2]北京市应急管理科学技术研究院,北京101101 [3]北京市科学技术研究院城市系统工程研究所,北京100035

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第8期198-204,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：北京市科技新星计划(Z211100002121101);北京建筑大学青年教师科研能力提升计划(X21054);北科萌芽计划项目(BGS202212);北京市科学技术研究院创新培育项目。

摘　　要：为有效判断城市韧性的发展趋势,构建科学合理的城市韧性度评价指标体系至关重要。首先,基于“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型,建立涵盖68个初选指标的城市韧性度评价指标体系;其次,采用信息敏感性和相关性分析优化指标体系;然后,采用CRITIC赋权法和综合指数法确定各指标权重并建立评价模型;最后,以北京市为例,结合区域特点及2010—2021年实际数据,确立包括31个指标的指标体系,分析该城市韧性度的发展趋势。结果表明:2010—2021年,北京市的城市韧性整体呈现上升趋势,城市韧性指数由2010年0.4367上升至2021年的0.5586。利用构建的评价指标体系和评价模型分析城市韧性时序演化趋势,可找出城市在应对突发事件过程中存在的薄弱环节,便于相关部门采取有针对性的措施。In order to make a comprehensive and effective judgment on the development of urban resilience,it is essential to construct a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system of urban resilience.Based on the PSR model,this paper initially established the urban resilience evaluation index system covering 68 primary indicators,and the index system was optimized by information sensitivity and Pearson correlation analysis.Finally,the weight of each indicator was determined by CRITIC,and an evaluation model was developed using the comprehensive index method.Taking Beijing as an example,according to the data from 2010-2021,an index system with 31 indicators was obtained,and the urban resilience was evaluated and analyzed.The results show that urban resilience of Beijing has shown an overall upward trend from 2010-2021,with the index increasing from 0.4367 in 2010 to 0.5586 in 2021.The result shows the model can figure out the weak link in the city under emergency with the constructed model and evaluation index system,which is beneficial for the relevant departments to put forward the strengthening-resilience suggestions.

关 键 词："压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型 信息敏感性 城市韧性度 评价指标体系 相关性分析 基于指标相关性的指标权重确定方法(CRITIC) 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]