云南楚雄彝族自治州洪涝风险评估  

Risk assessment of flood and waterlogging in Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yunnan

作　　者：何萍[1] 刘佳灵 HE Ping;LIU Jia-ling(Institute of Regional Climate and Environmental Change,Chuxiong Normal University,Chuxiong 675000,Yunnan,China;Department of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]楚雄师范学院区域气候与环境变化研究所,云南楚雄675000 [2]云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第5期1056-1064,共9页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41465001);云南省教育厅科学研究基金(2023J1080).

摘　　要：利用降水资料、地形资料与社会经济数据,建立楚雄彝族自治州(以下简称楚雄州)洪涝风险评估体系及评估模型.运用层次分析法计算出各个洪涝指标的权重值,再用加权综合评价法建立各影响因子模型,并用GIS(Geographic Information System)软件对数据结果制图,对致涝因子危险性、孕涝因子敏感性和承涝因子脆弱性3个指标进行分析,得到楚雄州洪涝风险的危险性、敏感性、脆弱性和综合风险评估指数.结果表明:楚雄州致涝因子危险性最高的是双柏县,危险性值是0.575,危险性最低的区域是元谋县,危险性值是0.067;楚雄州孕涝因子敏感性较高的是元谋县,敏感性值是0.392,敏感性最低的是双柏县,敏感性值是0.074;楚雄州承涝因子脆弱性最高的区域是双柏县,脆弱性值是0.194,脆弱性最低的区域是楚雄市,脆弱性值是0.011.洪涝风险综合评估的最高风险区域主要是双柏县,风险指数是0.437,最低风险的区域主要是元谋县,风险指数是0.137.Through the analyses of precipitation data,terrain data and socio-economic data,the flood and waterlogging risk assessment system and assessment model were established in Chuxiong Prefecture.The weight value of each flood index was calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process;The model of each influence factor was established by using the weighted comprehensive evaluation method;And GIS(Geographic Information System)was used to map the data results.The risk of waterlogging factors,the sensitivity of waterlogging pregnant factors and the vulnerability of waterlogging bearing factors were analyzed,and in this way the risk,sensitivity,vulnerability and comprehensive risk assessment index of flood and waterlogging in Chuxiong Prefecture were obtained.The results show that the highest risk of waterlogging factors in Chuxiong Prefecture is found in Shuangbai County,with a risk value of 0.575,and the lowest risk area is in Yuanmou County,with a risk value of 0.067.Besides,the area with the highest sensitivity of waterlogging factors in Chuxiong Prefecture is in Yuanmou County,with a sensitivity value of 0.392,while the lowest sensitivity is in Shuangbai County,with a sensitivity value of 0.074.Moreover,the area with the highest vulnerability to waterlogging factors in Chuxiong Prefecture is in Shuangbai County,with a vulnerability value of 0.194,while the area with the lowest vulnerability is in Chuxiong City,with a vulnerability value of 0.011.The high-risk areas of comprehensive flood risk assessment are mainly located in Shuangbai County,with the risk index being 0.437,while the low-risk areas are mainly in Yuanmou County,with the risk index being 0.137.

关 键 词：洪涝 风险指数 风险评估 云南高原 楚雄州 

分 类 号：P461.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]