基于等维灰数递补模型法的路面使用性能预测方法  

Pavement Performance Prediction Method Based on Equal-dimensional Grey Number Recursive Model Method

作　　者：韩金川 庄凤明 王莲香 张龙明 郭晓宇 HAN Jin-chuan;ZHUANG Feng-ming;WANG Lian-xiang;ZHANG Long-ming;GUO Xiao-yu(Department of Transportation Engineering,School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin Chengjian University,300384,Tianjin,China;No.6 Engineering Co.,Ltd.of FHEC of CCCC,300459,Tianjin China;Tianjin Highway Development Service Center,300170,Tianjin,China)

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学土木工程学院交通工程系,天津市300384 [2]中交一公局第六工程有限公司,天津市300459 [3]天津市公路事业发展服务中心,天津市300170

出　　处：《河北水利电力学院学报》2023年第3期59-64,共6页Journal of Hebei University Of Water Resources And Electric Engineering

基　　金：天津市教委科研计划项目(2020KJ038);天津市交通运输科技发展计划(2022-08、2022-22);山东省交通运输科技计划(2022B16)。

摘　　要：考虑到目前国内路面使用性能预测方法存在主观性强、综合性差的不足,选取路面损坏状况指数(Pavement Condition Index,PCI)作为分析指标,分别比较了路面性能衰变PPI模型、常规GM(1,1)模型以及等维灰数递补模型的路面使用性能预测方法对PCI指标的预测效果。结果表明,3种模型的预测精度均能满足一级精度。其中,等维灰数递补模型预测结果的后验差比值最小,预测的稳定性和精确度最好,更适用于路面使用性能的预测。Considering the shortcomings of strong subjectivity and poor comprehensiveness of the current domestic pavement performance prediction methods,this paper selects the pavement condition index(PCI)as the analysis index,and compares the prediction effects of three pavement performance prediction methods on the PCI index,namely,the PPI model of pavement performance degradation,the conventional GM(1,1)model and the equal-dimensional grey number progressive model.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the three models can meet the first-order accuracy.Among them,the posterior error ratio of the prediction results of the equal dimension grey number recursive model is the smallest,and the stability and accuracy of the prediction are the best,which is more suitable for the prediction of pavement performance.

关 键 词：路面 道路养护 使用性能预测 等维灰数递补模型法 

分 类 号：U416.217[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U418.6U416.2