资本账户开放对人民币跨境结算的影响——基于2012-2022年月度数据的实证分析  

Impact of Capital Account Opening on RMB Cross-border Settlement——Empirical Analysis Based on Monthly Data from 2012 to 2022

作　　者：万光彩[1] 钱瀚宇 WAN Guangcai;QIAN Hanyu(School of Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《安徽工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期455-468,共14页Journal of Anhui University of Technology（Natural Science）

基　　金：安徽省高校科学研究项目(YJS20210422);安徽省高校自然科学基金重大项目(KJ2021ZD0054);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2021244)。

摘　　要：基于2012-2022年月度数据,探究资本账户开放影响人民币跨境结算的具体传导机制,采用误差修正(VECM)模型从长期均衡与短期波动的角度检验宏观经济因素对人民币跨境结算的影响,借助时变参数向量自回归(TVP-SV-VAR)模型围绕经济波动就资本账户开放影响跨境结算的相关路径展开研究。结果表明:汇率与离岸市场是资本账户开放影响人民币跨境结算的主要渠道;价格机制辅以适当资本管制可有效规避套利风险;资本项目开放不足导致现行利率管理方式在一定程度上制约人民币跨境流动;利用离岸市场发挥价格发现功能可进一步完善人民币市场化定价机制。据此从审慎开放资本账户与推进汇率自由化、利率市场化、离岸市场建设等角度提出政策性建议,缓解资本账户开放对跨境贸易结算的不利影响,推动后疫情时代人民币跨境结算的发展。Based on the monthly data from 2012 to 2022,the specific transmission mechanism of capital account liberalization affecting RMB cross-border settlement was explored,and the impact of macroeconomic factors on RMB cross-border settlement was tested using the error correction(VECM)model from the perspective of long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation.Furthermore,the relevant paths of cross-border settlement around economic fluctuation were studied using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive(TVP-SV-VAR)model to examine the influence of capital account liberalization.The results show that exchange rate and offshore market are the main channels through which capital account liberalization affects RMB cross-border settlement.The price mechanism supplemented by appropriate capital controls can effectively avoid arbitrage risks,and the lack of capital account liberalization leads to the current interest rate management mode restricting the cross-border flow of RMB to a certain extent.Using the offshore market to play a price discovery function can further improve the RMB marketoriented pricing mechanism.Based on this,policy suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of prudent capital account opening,exchange rate liberalization,interest rate marketization and offshore market construction,so as to alleviate the adverse impact of capital account opening on cross-border trade settlement and promote the development of RMB cross-border settlement in the post−COVID−19 era.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 人民币跨境算 汇率 利率 离岸市场 

分 类 号：TU411.01[建筑科学—岩土工程]