人口迁移对养老金缺口的影响分析  

Analysis of the Impact of Population Migration on Pension Balance

作　　者：虞幸然 粟芳[1] YU Xingran;SU Fang(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2023年第5期26-32,共7页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(22JJD790089);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72101140)。

摘　　要：通过构建三部门世代交叠模型,依据现实数据进行模拟分析,考察在不同时间跨度下不同净迁移率对养老金收支的影响。研究发现,人口净流入的增加会导致养老金统筹账户和个人账户的收入与支出都增加。短期内,人口净流入会缩小养老金缺口,形成一定的养老金盈余;但长期内,人口净流入会使养老金缺口进一步扩大。鉴于此,地方政府通过吸引外来人口短期内缓解养老金缺口是可行的,但欲据此从根本上解决养老金缺口是不可取的。Constructing a three-sector generation overlapping model based on the pay-as-you-go system and conducting simulation analysis based on real data to discuss the change of net migration rate and its impact on pension income and expenditure under different time spans.The results show that an increase in net population inflow would lead to an increase in both income and expenditure in pension pooling accounts and personal accounts.In the short run,the net inflow of population will narrow the pension gap and form a certain pension surplus.But in the long run,net population inflows widen the pension gap further.Therefore,it is not advisable for local governments to solve the pension problem quickly by attracting migrants.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 净迁移率 养老金缺口 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济]