LNG现货资源择时采购策略分析  

Analysis of Timing Purchasing Strategy of LNG Spot Resources

作　　者：闫涵 Yan Han(China International United Petroleum&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100728,China)

机构地区：[1]中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司,北京100728

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2023年第9期16-20,共5页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：在对亚洲液化天然气(LNG)现货价格波动进行复盘的基础上,探究LNG现货价格低点和高点的成因,并据此构建LNG现货资源择时采购策略。统计分析结果表明,市场低点大多出现在3月、4月的春季入夏时期,市场价格波动成因的复盘分析揭示了季节性需求冲击在LNG现货价格决定中的核心作用,应用LNG现货资源择时采购策略能获得相对较好的经济效益。2023—2024年,全球LNG供应增量预计维持低位,市场情绪有所修复,需求虽有较大不确定性,但季节性波动仍存在,LNG现货资源择时采购策略或能有所作为。Based on the analysis of the volatility of LNG spot prices in Asia,this paper attempts to explore the causes of the low and high spot prices of LNG,and constructs the timing purchasing strategy of LNG spot resources.The statistical analysis shows that most of the market lows occur in March and April when spring began to summer.The result reveals the core role of seasonal demand shocks in determining the spot price of LNG.The timing purchasing strategy of LNG spot resources shows better economic benefits.Global LNG supply growth in 2023 is expected to remain low,market sentiment has been restored,and although there are large uncertainties in demand,seasonal fluctuations still exist,so the timing trading strategy of LNG spot resources could be effective.

关 键 词：液化天然气 现货 择时 贸易策略 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]