基于灰色关联度的舟曲小流域泥石流灾害风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Debris Flow Disaster in Zhouqu Small Watershed Based on Grey Relational Degree

作　　者：吴庆安 张金霞 刘兴荣[2] 马兴华 黄金燕 王磊 WU Qing-an;ZHANG Jin-xia;LIU Xing-rong;MA Xing-hua;HUANG Jin-yan;WANG Lei(College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Institute of Natural Disaster Prevention,Gansu Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,兰州730070 [2]甘肃省科学院自然灾害防治研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2023年第25期10713-10719,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：甘肃省2021年度重点人才项目(2021RCXM066);2021年甘肃省高等学校创新基金(2021B-138);甘肃省科技计划(20YF3FA006);甘肃科学院应用研究与开发项目(2021JK-07);甘肃科学院科技产业化项目(CY08);泥石流防治技术优化与减灾效果评价人才团队建设(GSAU-JSZX-2021-011)。

摘　　要：近年来,随着中国社会经济的迅速发展,山区开发建设已成为常态。特殊的地形地貌、气候、地质条件及人类活动等诸多因素为泥石流发生提供了孕灾条件,对人民的生命和财产安全构成了巨大的威胁。为了做好防灾减灾工作,构建较为精确的泥石流风险评价模型极为迫切。基于舟曲县泥石流形成条件及特征,并参照问卷调查结果,选取10个指标作为泥石流风险评价因子,利用灰色关联度方法构建了泥石流危险度评价模型,计算了各指标的权重并获得了各沟泥石流危险度;同时,运用受威胁财产及人口构建易损度评价模型,进而得到了各沟易损度值;通过危险度与易损度乘积建立风险度模型,获得各泥石流风险度结果,其中极高风险区占比27.27%、高风险区占比36.36%、中风险区占比18.18%、极低风险区占比18.18%。将计算结果和实际调查数据进行对比,发现两者结果基本吻合,表明该方法可靠实用,能够准确反映山区泥石流灾害的发生风险,为该类地质灾害的防灾减灾工作提供理论指导。In recent years,with the rapid development of China s social economy,the development and construction of mountainous areas has become the norm.Many factors,such as special topography,climate,geological conditions and human activities,provide disaster-prone conditions for debris flow,which poses a great threat to people s lives and property safety.In order to do a good job in disaster prevention and mitigation,it is extremely urgent to build a more accurate debris flow risk assessment model.Based on the formation conditions and characteristics of debris flow in Zhouqu County,and referring to the results of questionnaire survey,10 indicators were selected as the risk assessment factors of debris flow,the risk assessment model of debris flow was constructed by using the gray correlation method,the weight of each indicator was calculated and the risk of debris flow in each ditch was obtained.At the same time,the vulnerability evaluation model was constructed by using threatened property and population,and then the vulnerability value of each ditch was obtained.The risk model was established by the product of risk and vulnerability,and the results of each debris flow risk were obtained.The results show that the extremely high risk area accounts for 27.27%,the high risk area accounts for 36.36%,the medium risk area accounts for 18.18%,and the extremely low risk area accounts for 18.18%.Comparing the calculated results with the actual survey data,it is found that the two results are basically consistent,indicating that the method is reliable and practical,and can accurately reflect the risk of debris flow disasters in mountainous areas,providing theoretical guidance for the prevention and reduction of such geological disasters.

关 键 词：泥石流 风险评价 灰色关联度 舟曲 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]